NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,118+6.17%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 17:00 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Shake Shack Inc.
SHAK · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.5B · 13,873 employees
Shake Shack Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
58.27 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-15
Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 17:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Shake Shack Inc. holds its Distribution at $58.27. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 14 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 14 days
Price at the screen
$58.27
Valuation
61.34 trailing · 41.37 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.66
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
47.58%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 47.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
20.04%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 20.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 3.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 24 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +40% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Shake Shack Sells Burgers But Not Value
Picture the queue outside a city Shack on a Friday night. The brand draws crowds with its burgers and shakes, yet the shares trade at $58 against our fair value of $55.40. That leaves no margin of safety and an opportunity rating of none, even after clearing the ethical screen.
The business shows 14% revenue growth and a 3% profit margin, with return on equity at just 9%. A forward multiple of 38.9 times earnings prices in far more optimism than the current returns support. Consensus from 23 analysts points to $78, but the numbers do not justify stretching for that target when margins remain thin.
Cyclical dining spend can swing quickly with consumer confidence, and unknown competitive protection adds further uncertainty. At these levels the valuation leaves little room for the modest returns the company actually delivers. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SHAK trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-12Markdown · changed$72.94+2.5%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96.
2026-08-12Markup · changed$71.13+22.2%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 22.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96.
2026-07-18Distribution$58.22+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 57%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $96.
2026-07-03Distribution$58.22+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$58.22Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
