An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Metaplanet Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Markdown
read at $1.39
Metaplanet Inc. holds its Markdown at $1.39.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markdown label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 54 days
Price
$1.39
Valuation
N/A trailing · N/A forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.06
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 100% discount to our $2.78 fair value.
Read at
$1.39
N/A P/E · N/A fwd
Our fair value
$2.78
100% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$3.87
+178% to current
Target low $2.80Analyst target rangeTarget high $4.93
▲ current $1.39 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$1.39
you are here
Conservative
$2.78
+100%
Analyst avg
$3.87
+178%
Our fair value
$2.78
+100%
Analyst high
$4.93
+255%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
-77.40%
Profit margin
-13.67%
Debt to equity
112.47
Analyst consensus
None · 2 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its debt ratio. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 155.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are 39.7% of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Tokyo hotels chasing bitcoin hit every red flag
Picture a hotel group in Japan suddenly tilting its balance sheet toward bitcoin while guests still check in for rooms. Metaplanet fails our ethical screen outright because of its debt ratio and the numbers do nothing to change the view. Revenue has collapsed 77 percent, margins sit at minus 14 percent and return on equity is minus 6 percent, so the business is burning cash rather than building value.
We pass for two clear reasons that sit outside any price target. The ethical breach on debt alone rules it out, and the operational collapse in both hotel and bitcoin segments shows no sign of reversing. Two analysts may carry a median target of four dollars against the current price of 1.39, yet our fair value of 2.78 still leaves the company on the avoid list.
High leverage plus shrinking revenue creates a classic trap where any recovery could be wiped out by interest costs or further currency swings. The bitcoin angle adds extra volatility without fixing the underlying hotel economics. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to Japan and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
PEERS
Related securities · others in MTPLF's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
MTPLF trades on OQX (the company is based in Japan). As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 88%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $4. Entered 2026-07-18 · Markdown
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Markdown$1.51+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 88%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $4.
2026-07-03Markdown$1.51+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$1.51Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$2.23
-35.4%
·
$646
-35.4%
2 months
$2.03
-28.9%
·
$711
-28.9%
3 months
$2.29
-37.1%
·
$629
-37.1%
6 months
$3.06
-52.9%
·
$471
-52.9%
1 year
$11.57
-87.6%
·
$125
-87.6%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever MTPLF does next, these words stay.
Metaplanet Inc. · MTPLF · Markdown · $1.39
Recorded 2026-07-19 · before the outcome · scored mechanically