Screened 2026-09-07 · the tape above runs as of 17:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Metaplanet Inc. holds its Accumulation at $1.81. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 54 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-07
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 54 days
Price at the screen
$1.81
Valuation
N/A trailing · N/A forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.06
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
155.53%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 155.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
39.66%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 39.7% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 100% discount to our $3.61 fair value.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-07 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 100.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +122% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-07 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Tokyo hotels chasing bitcoin hit every red flag
Picture a hotel group in Japan suddenly tilting its balance sheet toward bitcoin while guests still check in for rooms. Metaplanet fails our ethical screen outright because of its debt ratio and the numbers do nothing to change the view. Revenue has collapsed 77 percent, margins sit at minus 14 percent and return on equity is minus 6 percent, so the business is burning cash rather than building value.
We pass for two clear reasons that sit outside any price target. The ethical breach on debt alone rules it out, and the operational collapse in both hotel and bitcoin segments shows no sign of reversing. Two analysts may carry a median target of four dollars against the current price of 1.39, yet our fair value of 2.78 still leaves the company on the avoid list.
High leverage plus shrinking revenue creates a classic trap where any recovery could be wiped out by interest costs or further currency swings. The bitcoin angle adds extra volatility without fixing the underlying hotel economics. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Japan and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MTPLF trades on OQX (the company is based in Japan). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-06Accumulation · changed$1.51+7.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 88%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $4.
2026-08-06Markdown$1.41-6.6%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 88%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $4.
2026-07-18Markdown$1.51+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 88%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $4.
2026-07-03Markdown$1.51+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$1.51Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.