NAS10027,088+1.72%S&P7,415+0.84%GOLD$4,061−1.27%BTC$75,685−0.34%VIX24.44−13.27%latest tape · as of 16:01 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
CHAChagee Holdings Limited
CHA · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $2.4B · 3,812 employees
Chagee Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and franchises teahouses under the CHAGEE brand in the People's Republic of China, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, an…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
12.28 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 16:01 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price12.28 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price12.28 USD
Fair value19.46
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-22Read Accumulation12.95-5.2% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 29% rise in 8 weeks
2026-08-25Read Markdown10.01+22.7% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after an 11% slide in 5 weeks
2026-07-24Read Distribution11.30+8.7% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 7% slide in 3 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markdown12.16+1.0% to today First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Chagee Holdings Limited holds its Accumulation at $12.28. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 85 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 85 days
Price at the screen
$12.28
Valuation
12.90 trailing · 7.80 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Accounts receivable
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
11.12%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 11.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
3.13%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
67.64%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 67.6% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
1.14%
Below 5%
Only 1.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Chagee's business is fine, but its receivables are about 68% of its assets, well over the ~49% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when CHA's ethical verdict changes
Today CHA does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 34% discount to our $19.46 fair value, 2.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 36.9% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $19.46, with a range of $19.46 to $25.54, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
China Tea Chain Trades At Low Multiple
Picture a busy Shanghai street where office workers grab a quick cup of freshly brewed tea before heading back to their desks. Chagee has built a network of teahouses across China and several Asian markets that serves exactly that habit. Yet revenue is advancing only four percent a year while the shares change hands at 6.7 times forward earnings.
We pass because the numbers do not add up to a compelling case. Profit margins sit at seven percent, return on equity at fifteen percent, and the moat remains unknown. Even with an ethical screen that clears and a consensus buy rating from analysts, the low multiple on a cyclical consumer business flags peak earnings rather than a bargain.
Currency swings, shifting tastes in China, and competition from bigger coffee and bubble-tea players all sit in the path. A sixty-six percent gap to the analyst median target does not remove those structural questions.
Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to China and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CHA trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in China). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Accumulation$12.05-6.9%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 6.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $16.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 15.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-10-15Markdown$11.25-7.9%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-10-02Markdown$12.22+22.1%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 22.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-08-25Markdown · changed$10.01-11.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 11.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $16.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-07-18Markdown$12.16+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-07-03Markdown$12.16+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$12.16Entry 1
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.