Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.44, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price34.57 USD
Fair value47.37
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-21Read Accumulation41.10-15.9% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation with results news in the headlines
2026-10-02Read Markdown39.15-11.7% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 23% slide in 6 weeks
2026-08-23Read Distribution51.13-32.4% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 22% slide in 7 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup65.89-47.5% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Dutch Bros Inc holds its Accumulation at $34.57. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 40 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 40 days
Price at the screen
$34.57
Valuation
48.01 trailing · 26.46 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.93
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
36.19%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 36.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
9.56%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 9.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Dutch Bros's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 36% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today BROS does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 27% discount to our $47.37 fair value, weak competitive moat, 32.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 27.0% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $47.37, with a range of $26.10 to $54.48, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Drive thru coffee at a steep premium
Picture the morning queue at a Dutch Bros window, quick service and loyal fans. Yet the shares trade at 54 times forward earnings against a fair value 22 percent lower, with a weak moat and only 5 percent profit margins. Growth at 31 percent revenue a year cannot mask the gap between price and reality, so we pass.
Return on equity sits at 14 percent, nothing special in a crowded restaurant sector where cycles can turn fast. Analysts may favour the name, but the valuation leaves no margin of safety and the business shows no durable edge over rivals.
Ethical checks clear, yet high multiples on modest returns still flag risk of disappointment if growth slows. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BROS trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Accumulation$43.58+1.7%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $77. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Accumulation$42.87+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $77. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Accumulation$42.87+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $77. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Accumulation$42.87-0.1%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $77. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$42.93+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $77. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$42.93+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $77. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$42.93+3.5%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $77. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$41.49+0.9%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $77. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 8.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $77. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-14Markdown$38.05-2.8%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $77. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
