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The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Dutch Bros Inc
BROS · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $7.0B · 24,000 employees
Dutch Bros Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates and franchises drive-thru shops in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
40.16 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-17
Screened 2026-09-17 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Dutch Bros Inc holds its Markdown at $40.16. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-17
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$40.16
Valuation
55.78 trailing · 30.57 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
2.29
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
36.19%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 36.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
9.56%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 9.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-17 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 34.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 25 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +97% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-17 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Drive thru coffee at a steep premium
Picture the morning queue at a Dutch Bros window, quick service and loyal fans. Yet the shares trade at 54 times forward earnings against a fair value 22 percent lower, with a weak moat and only 5 percent profit margins. Growth at 31 percent revenue a year cannot mask the gap between price and reality, so we pass.
Return on equity sits at 14 percent, nothing special in a crowded restaurant sector where cycles can turn fast. Analysts may favour the name, but the valuation leaves no margin of safety and the business shows no durable edge over rivals.
Ethical checks clear, yet high multiples on modest returns still flag risk of disappointment if growth slows. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BROS trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 25.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $77. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-07-23Markup$68.36+3.7%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $77.
2026-07-18Markup$65.89+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $77.
2026-07-03Markup$65.89+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$65.89Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
