Screened 2026-09-03 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Yum China Holdings Inc holds its Markdown at $43.69. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 15 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-03
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 15 days
Price at the screen
$43.69
Valuation
16.00 trailing · 12.94 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.08
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
21.72%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 21.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
6.96%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 7.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
5.57%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 5.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.78%
Below 5%
Only 0.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 54.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 21 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +40% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Queues at KFC still form in Shanghai
Walk into any KFC in a Chinese city and the queues still move briskly, yet the shares trade at 43.87 dollars. The business shows 10 percent revenue growth, an 8 percent profit margin and 16 percent ROE on a forward multiple of 13.4 times. A narrow moat and a clean ethical screen leave the numbers looking steady rather than compelling.
We see no opportunity despite the 51 percent gap to our 66.27 dollar fair value and the street median target of 61 dollars. Narrow competitive protection in a market where local tastes and rules can shift quickly keeps any apparent discount from turning into a real edge.
China exposure brings real swings from regulation, consumer sentiment and currency moves that a low multiple alone cannot offset. Peak-cycle earnings in consumer cyclical names often look cheap for good reason. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to China and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
YUMC trades on the NYSE (the company is based in China). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-18Markdown · changed$43.69-7.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (22 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $61.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (22 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $61.
2026-07-18Markdown$44.63+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (22 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $61.
2026-07-03Markdown$44.63+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$44.63Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
