2026-10-25
NVR, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 20:03 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
NVR, Inc.
NVR · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $15.9B · 6,300 employees
NVR, Inc.
Not yet scored6,376.82 USD
Price as of 4 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-04 · the tape above runs as of 20:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price6,376.82 USD at the 4 Nov 2026 close
- Our value readOvervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026
- Our regime readMarkup, as of 4 Nov 2026
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- Last reviewed4 Nov 2026 (1 days ago)
- Release timesRelease and earnings times on your chart: Event Guard Mentor
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · ONE YEAR
Our fair-value range: $4,552.20 to $5,371.06, base estimate $4,670.49 (screen dated 2026-11-04).
- Trend Markup
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-11
- Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price6,376.82 USD
Fair value4,670.49
Ethical score84.9/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Markup6,376.82+0.0% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 7% rise in 7 days
2026-10-29Read Distribution5,983.68+6.6% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-10-02Read Markdown6,267.89+1.7% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-09-08Read Accumulation6,358.51+0.3% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation while volume is distributing
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its markup label.
NVR, Inc. holds its Markup at $6,376.82. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 5 days.
| Phase | Markup |
| Quantitative state | The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 5 days |
| Price at the screen | $6,376.82 |
| Valuation | 16.47 trailing · 16.81 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 84.9 |
| Beta | 0.90 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 17.98% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 18.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.00% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 33.28% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 33.3% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
NVR, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
NVR, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 18%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades above our $4,670.49 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat.
How a fair value is estimated: discounted cash flow (DCF).
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 36.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −4% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere our models see it going: fair-value estimate $4,670.49, with a range of $4,552.20 to $5,371.06, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsHomebuilder Keeps Building Through the Slowdown
When families still need a roof even as borrowing costs rise, NVR keeps turning land into homes across the United States. The business delivers a 33 percent return on equity and 12 percent profit margins while holding a moderate competitive edge. Forward earnings sit at 15.5 times despite revenue falling 21 percent, and the ethical screen raises no flags.
That combination of efficiency and clean governance marks the case for watching the name. Shares trade above our fair value yet the cyclical residential sector rarely stays down forever. A hold rating from five analysts leaves the door open if volumes recover.
The obvious risk is the cycle itself. Revenue already sliding hard and a negative margin of safety mean any further slowdown in buyer demand could pressure results quickly. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 16.8xreasonably valued |
| Trailing P/E | 16.5xreasonably valued |
| EPS, trailing | 361.76 |
| EPS, forward | 354.55 |
| Revenue growth | -8.2%revenue is shrinking |
| Profit margin | 11.1%thin but positive margins |
| Return on equity | 28.3%an exceptional return on shareholder capital |
| Debt to equity | 0.31minimal debt: a conservative balance sheet |
| Current ratio | 5.07comfortably covers its short-term bills |
| Beta | 0.90steadier than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.09% |
| 52-week range | 5,501.01 - 8,200.00 |
| Moat | MODERATE |
| Market cap | $15.9B |
| Employees | 6,300 |
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeNVR trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05
Markup · changed $6,376.82
+6.6% Entry 16
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6230.
2026-10-29
Distribution · changed $5,983.68
+1.1% Entry 15
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6262.
2026-10-22
Markdown $5,919.82
+0.0% Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6395. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21
Markdown $5,919.82
+0.0% Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6395. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20
Markdown $5,919.82
+0.0% Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6395. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19
Markdown $5,919.82
+0.0% Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6395. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18
Markdown $5,919.82
+0.0% Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6395. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17
Markdown $5,919.82
-0.4% Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6395. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16
Markdown $5,940.83
+0.7% Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6395. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15
Markdown $5,899.16
-5.9% Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6395. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
- NVR Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates on Lower Settlements & Margin Pressure Yahoo Finance · 13d ago
- Norwegian downgraded, Skydance upgraded: Wall Street's top analyst calls Yahoo Finance · 13d ago
- NVR (NYSE:NVR) reports sales below analyst estimates in Q3 2026 earnings Yahoo Finance · 14d ago
- NVR (NVR) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Lag Estimates Yahoo Finance · 14d ago
- NVR: Q3 Earnings Snapshot Yahoo Finance · 14d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
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| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | DEVITO MICHAEL J. | Director | 11 | $73,694 | |
| 2026-02-20 | ANDREWS CHARLES ELLIOTT JR | Director | 5 | · | |
| 2026-02-13 | ROSS SUSAN WILLIAMSON | Director | 200 | $1,584,412 | |
| 2026-02-13 | ROSS SUSAN WILLIAMSON | Director | 200 | $340,000 | |
| 2026-02-10 | KELPY MATTHEW B. CPA | Officer | 500 | $4,050,000 | |
| 2026-02-10 | KELPY MATTHEW B. CPA | Officer | 500 | $2,237,765 | |
| 2026-02-05 | ROSS SUSAN WILLIAMSON | Director | 200 | $1,618,324 | |
| 2026-02-05 | ROSS SUSAN WILLIAMSON | Director | 200 | $340,000 | |
| 2026-02-04 | ROSS SUSAN WILLIAMSON | Director | 220 | $1,760,000 | |
| 2026-02-04 | ROSS SUSAN WILLIAMSON | Director | 220 | $374,000 |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
| Date | Politician | Party | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Ro Khanna | Democrat | buy | 1K–15K |
| 2026-09-11 | Ro Khanna | Democrat | buy | 1K–15K |
| 2026-09-11 | Ro Khanna | Democrat | buy | 1K–15K |
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $5,910.67 | +6.2% | · | $1,062 | +6.2% |
| 2 months | $6,750.04 | -7.0% | · | $930 | -7.0% |
| 3 months | $6,439.00 | -2.5% | · | $975 | -2.5% |
| 6 months | $7,511.16 | -16.4% | · | $836 | -16.4% |
| 1 year | $7,398.68 | -15.1% | · | $849 | -15.1% |
| 2 years | $7,544.20 | -16.8% | · | $832 | -16.8% |
| 3 years | $5,817.96 | +7.9% | · | $1,079 | +7.9% |
| 5 years | $4,669.79 | +34.5% | · | $1,345 | +34.5% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever NVR does next, these words stay.
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Join the deskScreening is research, not a fatwa and not financial advice. Figures are drawn from public accounts at the screen date shown. Always manage your risk.