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The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Toll Brothers Inc
TOL · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $12.3B · 4,900 employees
Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for a range of detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States.
Screened 2026-09-18 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Toll Brothers Inc holds its Markdown at $133.06. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 6 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 6 days
Price at the screen
$133.06
Valuation
10.72 trailing · 9.50 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.33
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
20.08%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 20.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
9.76%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 9.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.27%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 46.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +32% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Luxury homes look cheap until the cycle turns
Picture a buyer signing for a Toll Brothers home in good times. The company builds and sells those detached luxury houses across the United States, yet revenue is already falling 8 percent and the moat stays narrow.
We pass despite the 10.7 times forward earnings, 12 percent profit margin and 16 percent return on equity. The low multiple on a cyclical builder often signals peak earnings rather than a bargain, and the opportunity rating sits at none even with a modest margin of safety.
The main risk is the housing cycle itself. When demand fades further, margins and returns compress quickly, and the apparent value disappears. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TOL trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-17Markdown · changed$141.80-2.5%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $165.
2026-08-18Distribution$145.45-6.1%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $165. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-16Distribution$154.98+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $165. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $165.
2026-07-18Markup$147.10+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $165.
2026-07-03Markup$147.10+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$147.10Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.