An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Installed Building Products, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the installation of insulation for residential and commercial builders in the United States.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $228.65
Installed Building Products, Inc. holds its Distribution at $228.65.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 14 days
Price
$228.65
Valuation
24.45 trailing · 20.43 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.71
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$228.65
24.45 P/E · 20.43 fwd
Our fair value
$236.94
4% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$230.00
+1% to current
Target low $200.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $286.00
▲ current $228.65 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$228.65
you are here
Conservative
$182.91
-20%
Analyst avg
$230.00
+1%
Our fair value
$236.94
+4%
Analyst high
$286.00
+25%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Revenue growth
-3.50%
Profit margin
8.65%
Debt to equity
176.87
Analyst consensus
Hold · 11 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Picture a roofer finishing new homes just as mortgage rates push buyers away. Installed Building Products installs insulation across US residential and commercial sites, yet revenue has already slipped 4 percent and the stock trades at a forward multiple of 20.4 times with only a 4 percent margin of safety to fair value. Analysts rate it a hold with a $230 target that sits almost level with the current price, so the numbers give no clear reason to step in.
High returns on equity of 38 percent and a clean ethical pass look attractive at first glance, but the business sits squarely inside a cyclical sector where falling volumes can erase those returns quickly. The modest profit margin of 9 percent offers little cushion once housing starts turn lower.
Risks centre on further revenue pressure if rates stay high or consumer demand weakens, turning what appears a stable installer into a classic cyclical trap where a middling multiple reflects peak earnings rather than value. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
PEERS
Related securities · others in IBP's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
IBP trades on the NYSE. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $249. Entered 2026-07-18 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Distribution$207.09+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $249.
2026-07-03Distribution$207.09+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$207.09Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming IBP
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
15 Jun2026
David Taylor
Republican
buy
1K–15K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$206.20
-6.1%
·
$939
-6.1%
2 months
$285.88
-32.3%
·
$678
-32.3%
3 months
$269.92
-28.3%
$2.19
$726
-27.4%
6 months
$282.40
-31.4%
$2.56
$695
-30.5%
1 year
$172.74
+12.1%
$3.30
$1,140
+14.0%
2 years
$203.98
-5.1%
$6.42
$981
-1.9%
3 years
$111.33
+74.0%
$9.36
$1,824
+82.4%
5 years
$107.69
+79.8%
$13.65
$1,925
+92.5%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever IBP does next, these words stay.
Installed Building Products, Inc. · IBP · Distribution · $228.65
Recorded 2026-07-19 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
