The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Installed Building Products, Inc.
IBP · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $5.4B · 10,400 employees
Installed Building Products, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the installation of insulation for residential and commercial builders in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
204.28 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Installed Building Products, Inc. holds its Markdown at $204.28. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 14 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 14 days
Price at the screen
$204.28
Valuation
22.01 trailing · 17.93 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.72
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
47.95%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 48.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
37.04%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 37.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 21.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +20% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
Picture a roofer finishing new homes just as mortgage rates push buyers away. Installed Building Products installs insulation across US residential and commercial sites, yet revenue has already slipped 4 percent and the stock trades at a forward multiple of 20.4 times with only a 4 percent margin of safety to fair value. Analysts rate it a hold with a $230 target that sits almost level with the current price, so the numbers give no clear reason to step in.
High returns on equity of 38 percent and a clean ethical pass look attractive at first glance, but the business sits squarely inside a cyclical sector where falling volumes can erase those returns quickly. The modest profit margin of 9 percent offers little cushion once housing starts turn lower.
Risks centre on further revenue pressure if rates stay high or consumer demand weakens, turning what appears a stable installer into a classic cyclical trap where a middling multiple reflects peak earnings rather than value. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
IBP trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 10.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $249.
2026-08-01Markup · changed$222.94+7.7%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $249.
2026-07-18Distribution$207.09+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $249.
2026-07-03Distribution$207.09+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$207.09Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
