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The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Installed Building Products, Inc.
IBP · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $5.0B · 10,400 employees
Installed Building Products, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the installation of insulation for residential and commercial builders in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
199.12 USD
Price as of 23 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quoteLast reviewed 6 days ago
Screened 2026-10-23 · the tape above runs as of 12:02 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price199.12 USD at the 23 Oct 2026 close
Ethical screenDoes not pass
OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.40)
Last reviewed23 Oct 2026 (6 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 199.12 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 212.89, over the last year.
Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-08
Options put/call open interest 0.40, read 2026-10-24
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price199.12 USD
Fair value212.89
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-29Read Accumulation199.12+0.0% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-11Read Markdown192.70+3.3% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown
2026-10-02Read Distribution192.70+3.3% to today Accumulation gives way to Distribution after a 22% slide in 4 weeks
2026-09-01Read Accumulation246.98-19.4% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation after an 11% rise in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Installed Building Products, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $199.12. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 63 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 63 days
Price at the screen
$199.12
Valuation
20.43 trailing · 17.57 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.72
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
47.95%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 48.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
37.04%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 37.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Installed Building Products,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 48% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today IBP does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 6.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +9% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
Picture a roofer finishing new homes just as mortgage rates push buyers away. Installed Building Products installs insulation across US residential and commercial sites, yet revenue has already slipped 4 percent and the stock trades at a forward multiple of 20.4 times with only a 4 percent margin of safety to fair value. Analysts rate it a hold with a $230 target that sits almost level with the current price, so the numbers give no clear reason to step in.
High returns on equity of 38 percent and a clean ethical pass look attractive at first glance, but the business sits squarely inside a cyclical sector where falling volumes can erase those returns quickly. The modest profit margin of 9 percent offers little cushion once housing starts turn lower.
Risks centre on further revenue pressure if rates stay high or consumer demand weakens, turning what appears a stable installer into a classic cyclical trap where a middling multiple reflects peak earnings rather than value. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
IBP trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $249. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$189.37+0.6%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $249. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
2026-10-18Markdown$188.26-2.3%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $249.
2026-10-11Markdown · changed$192.70+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $249.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 22.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $249.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 10.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $249.
2026-08-01Markup · changed$222.94+7.7%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $249.
2026-07-18Distribution$207.09+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $249.
2026-07-03Distribution$207.09+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$207.09Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
