Screened 2026-08-26 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
KB Home holds its Distribution at $56.08. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-26
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$56.08
Valuation
13.64 trailing · 12.64 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.34
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
25.64%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 25.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.23%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.53%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.12%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-26 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 3.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +1% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our model sees value the Street hasn't fully caught up to yet.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-26 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Homebuilder Slowdown Leaves Little Room to Move
Picture a contractor pouring concrete while mortgage rates push first-time buyers back to the sidelines. KB Home sits in exactly that spot, with revenue already down 27 percent and a forward earnings multiple of just 12.6 times offering little comfort once the cycle turns. The shares trade almost exactly at the analyst median target of 56 dollars, and our own fair-value estimate sits only 4 percent higher, which is no margin at all.
We pass. Profit margins sit at 5 percent and return on equity at 7 percent, modest numbers for a business whose fortunes rise and fall with housing demand. Ethical screens clear, yet the combination of shrinking top-line growth and thin returns leaves nothing compelling on the table.
The real danger is the classic cyclical trap: earnings that look cheap at peak or mid-cycle multiples can compress fast when volumes fall further. With no moat visible and consensus stuck at hold, the setup offers exposure without reward. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
KBH trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-18Distribution$56.08+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $55. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-17Distribution$56.08+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $55. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-03Distribution · changed$56.080.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $55. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-08-03Markup · changed$56.10+3.9%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $55.
2026-07-18Distribution$54.00+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $55.
2026-07-03Distribution$54.00+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$54.00Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
