2026-10-25
Green Brick Partners, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 14:02 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Green Brick Partners, Inc.
GRBK · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.6B · 620 employees
Green Brick Partners, Inc., the third-largest homebuilder in Dallas-Fort Worth and one of Fortune Magazine's fastest-growing companies.
Not yet scored64.42 USD
Price as of 23 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quoteLast reviewed 6 days ago
Screened 2026-10-23 · the tape above runs as of 14:02 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price64.42 USD at the 23 Oct 2026 close
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans to puts (put/call 1.15)
- Last reviewed23 Oct 2026 (6 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 64.42 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 57.98, over the last year.
- Trend Markdown
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 1.15, read 2026-10-28
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price64.42 USD
Fair value57.98
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown67.56-4.6% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after an 8% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-31Read Accumulation73.78-12.7% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation
2026-07-31Read Markup72.75-11.5% to today Markdown gives way to Markup with results news in the headlines
2026-07-02Read Markdown72.19-10.8% to today ✓First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its markdown label.
Green Brick Partners, Inc. holds its Markdown at $64.42. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 475 days.
| Phase | Markdown · caution |
| Quantitative state | The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 475 days |
| Price at the screen | $64.42 |
| Valuation | 9.14 trailing · 10.12 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 1.76 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 12.98% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 13.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.00% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 7.68% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 7.7% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Green Brick Partners, clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Green Brick Partners, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 13%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 10.0% above the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsHomebuilder Looks Cheap But Cycle May Be Turning
Picture a young couple signing for their first house in Dallas just as rates stay sticky. Green Brick builds those homes across Texas, Georgia and Florida, yet its revenue has already dropped five percent while the shares sit nineteen percent above our fair value. The forward multiple of eleven point seven times earnings looks modest on the surface, but this is a cyclical business where low multiples often signal peak earnings rather than a bargain.
We pass because the numbers do not line up with any margin of safety. Profit margins sit at fifteen percent and return on equity at seventeen percent, yet growth has turned negative and only one analyst even covers the name. Ethical screens clear, which removes one objection, but the valuation gap and shrinking top line leave nothing attractive on offer.
The real risk sits in the housing cycle itself. A sharp slowdown in buyer demand or further rate pressure could compress those margins quickly, and the low multiple would then prove to be a warning rather than an entry point. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 10.1xreasonably valued |
| Trailing P/E | 9.1xvery cheap relative to earnings |
| EPS, trailing | 6.64 |
| EPS, forward | 6.00 |
| Revenue growth | -8.7%revenue is shrinking |
| Profit margin | 14.8%thin but positive margins |
| Return on equity | 16.4%a solid return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | 0.27% |
| Debt to equity | 0.14minimal debt: a conservative balance sheet |
| Current ratio | 7.05comfortably covers its short-term bills |
| Beta | 1.76much more volatile than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.09% |
| 52-week range | 59.12 - 83.18 |
| Market cap | $2.6B |
| Employees | 620 |
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeGRBK trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28
Markdown $60.68
+0.0% Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $62. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27
Markdown $60.68
+0.0% Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $62. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26
Markdown $60.68
+0.0% Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $62. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25
Markdown $60.68
+0.0% Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $62. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24
Markdown $60.68
+0.0% Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $62. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23
Markdown $60.68
+0.0% Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $62. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22
Markdown $60.68
-2.1% Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $62. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21
Markdown $61.98
-1.4% Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $62. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14
Markdown $62.86
-7.0% Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $62.
2026-10-02
Markdown · changed $67.56
-8.4% Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 8.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $62.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
- Green Brick Partners, Inc. Announces Dates For 8-K Filing and Earnings Call Yahoo Finance · 28d ago
- Green Brick Partners (GRBK) Stock Trades At A Discount To Earnings Simply Wall St. · 20 Sep 2026
- Green Brick Partners (GRBK) Stock Trades At A Discount To Earnings Yahoo Finance · 20 Sep 2026
- Green Brick Partners CEO Jim Brickman Explains What Makes Business Model Unique NYSE · 18 Sep 2026
- Green Brick Partners CEO Jim Brickman Explains What Makes Business Model Unique Yahoo Finance · 18 Sep 2026
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
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| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $65.26 | +7.1% | · | $1,071 | +7.1% |
| 2 months | $67.28 | +3.9% | · | $1,039 | +3.9% |
| 3 months | $64.06 | +9.1% | · | $1,091 | +9.1% |
| 6 months | $67.28 | +3.9% | · | $1,039 | +3.9% |
| 1 year | $62.30 | +12.2% | · | $1,122 | +12.2% |
| 2 years | $54.07 | +29.3% | · | $1,293 | +29.3% |
| 3 years | $55.69 | +25.5% | · | $1,255 | +25.5% |
| 5 years | $23.03 | +203.5% | · | $3,035 | +203.5% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever GRBK does next, these words stay.
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