2026-10-25
Meritage Homes clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 04:01 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction
Meritage Homes Corporation
MTH · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $3.9B · 1,860 employees
Meritage Homes Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs and builds single-family attached and detached homes in the United States.
Not yet scored64.19 USD
Price as of 23 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quoteLast reviewed 6 days ago
Screened 2026-10-23 · the tape above runs as of 04:01 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price64.19 USD at the 23 Oct 2026 close
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.47)
- Last reviewed23 Oct 2026 (6 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 64.19 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 90.00, over the last year.
- Trend Distribution
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 0.47, read 2026-10-28
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price64.19 USD
Fair value90.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Distribution60.23+6.6% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 17% slide in 7 weeks
2026-09-06Read Markdown72.23-11.1% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown with results news in the headlines
2026-08-06Read Markup70.20-8.6% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 6% slide in 5 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution74.44-13.8% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its distribution label.
Meritage Homes Corporation holds its Distribution at $64.19. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 65 days.
| Phase | Distribution · caution |
| Quantitative state | Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 65 days |
| Price at the screen | $64.19 |
| Valuation | 12.57 trailing · 10.78 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 1.34 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 24.79% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 24.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.00% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 14.20% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 14.2% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
| Revenue purity | 0.00% | Below 5% | Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Meritage Homes clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Meritage Homes clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 25%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 40.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +17% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsHomebuilder Looks Cheap But Revenue Is Shrinking
Picture a builder who has cleared the site and poured the foundations yet sees buyers vanish overnight. Meritage Homes sits in exactly that spot. Revenue has already dropped 18 percent and the forward multiple of 11.4 times offers little comfort when the housing cycle turns. With an opportunity rating of none we simply step aside.
The low return on equity of 7 percent and unknown competitive edge underline the problem. In residential construction a depressed price-to-earnings ratio often signals peak earnings rather than a bargain. Analyst targets sit only modestly higher and give no margin for the next slowdown in US home demand.
Currency and policy shifts matter less here than mortgage rates and land costs. The ethical screen is clear but that alone does not create an investment case when growth has stalled. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 10.8xreasonably valued |
| Trailing P/E | 12.6xreasonably valued |
| EPS, trailing | 4.79 |
| EPS, forward | 5.59 |
| Revenue growth | -13.8%revenue is shrinking |
| Profit margin | 6.1%thin but positive margins |
| Return on equity | 6.4%a modest return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | 7.49% |
| Dividend yield | 258.00% |
| Debt to equity | 0.38minimal debt: a conservative balance sheet |
| Current ratio | 14.36comfortably covers its short-term bills |
| Beta | 1.34moves a little more than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.09% |
| 52-week range | 56.66 - 85.38 |
| Market cap | $3.9B |
| Employees | 1,860 |
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeMTH trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28
Distribution $60.23
+0.0% Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $78. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27
Distribution $60.23
+0.0% Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $78. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26
Distribution $60.23
+0.0% Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $78. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25
Distribution · changed $60.23
+0.0% Entry 12
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $78. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24
Markdown $60.23
+0.0% Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $78. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23
Markdown $60.23
+0.0% Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $78. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22
Markdown $60.23
+0.0% Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $78. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21
Markdown $60.23
+2.4% Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $78. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14
Markdown $58.81
-8.6% Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 8.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $78.
2026-10-02
Markdown $64.37
-10.9% Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 10.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $78.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
- NVR (NVR) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Lag Estimates Yahoo Finance · 7d ago
- Analysts Estimate D.R. Horton (DHI) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for Yahoo Finance · 7d ago
- Analysts Estimate Meritage Homes (MTH) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for Yahoo Finance · 8d ago
- 3 Out-of-Favor Stocks We Keep Off Our Radar Yahoo Finance · 10d ago
- 3 Reasons to Avoid MTH and 1 Stock to Buy Instead Yahoo Finance · 16d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
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| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $63.79 | +10.6% | · | $1,106 | +10.6% |
| 2 months | $66.55 | +6.0% | · | $1,060 | +6.0% |
| 3 months | $62.31 | +13.2% | $0.48 | $1,140 | +14.0% |
| 6 months | $71.58 | -1.5% | $0.91 | $998 | -0.2% |
| 1 year | $66.02 | +6.8% | $1.77 | $1,095 | +9.5% |
| 2 years | $80.66 | -12.5% | $3.33 | $916 | -8.4% |
| 3 years | $61.35 | +15.0% | $4.11 | $1,217 | +21.7% |
| 5 years | $46.53 | +51.6% | $4.24 | $1,607 | +60.7% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever MTH does next, these words stay.
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