Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Taylor Morrison Home Corporation holds its Markup at $72.45. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 8 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 8 days
Price at the screen
$72.45
Valuation
10.80 trailing · 11.31 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.44
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
24.02%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 24.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
11.10%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 11.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 10.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +0% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Homebuilder Sells at a Premium to Value
Picture a family signing for their first home in Phoenix just as mortgage rates climb and buyer traffic slows. Taylor Morrison builds those houses across the Sun Belt, yet the numbers show revenue dropping 27 percent and a forward multiple of 11.3 times that flatters peak-cycle earnings. We pass because the shares sit 10 percent above our fair value and the business carries no clear moat in a market that has already turned.
The low multiple looks tempting until you remember this is residential construction. Profit margins sit at 9 percent and return on equity at 11 percent, both typical for the sector near the top of a housing cycle. When volumes fall further the same earnings can compress quickly, turning an apparently cheap multiple into a value trap rather than a bargain.
Ethical checks clear and four analysts sit on hold with a 72 dollar median target, but that consensus simply mirrors the current price and offers no margin of safety. Currency or regulatory shocks are absent here; the real exposure is to interest rates and consumer confidence that remain outside the company's control. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TMHC trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-14Markup$72.45+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $70.
2026-08-14Markup · changed$72.45+0.8%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $70.
2026-07-18Markdown$71.90+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $70.
2026-07-03Markdown$71.90+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$71.90Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
