Screened 2026-08-21 · the tape above runs as of 22:38 UTC · 8 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
PulteGroup holds its Markdown at $129.00. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 211 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 211 days
Price at the screen
$129.00
Valuation
13.18 trailing · 11.47 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 91.1
Beta
1.21
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
12.73%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 12.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.93%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
12.37%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 12.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.26%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades at roughly a 29% discount to our $166.00 fair value, moderate competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 28.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +12% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Homebuilders look cheap until the cycle turns
Think of the US housing market as a busy roundabout where every new family needs a home yet the flow of buyers keeps speeding up and slowing down. PulteGroup sits right in the middle of that flow, building single family houses across the country with a moderate moat and a 16 percent return on equity.
The stock trades at 11.4 times forward earnings with a 15 percent margin of safety to our $145 fair value, a 12 percent profit margin and analyst targets clustered at the same level. It clears our ethical screen and shows the kind of cash generation that often rewards patient owners in this sector.
Yet residential construction remains deeply cyclical. Revenue already fell 12 percent and a low multiple on peak earnings is usually a warning rather than a bargain. Housing demand can stall fast when rates or sentiment shift. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PHM trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-08Markup · changed$133.01+12.3%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 12.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $138.
2026-07-18Distribution$118.40+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $138.
2026-07-03Distribution$118.40+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (91). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$118.40Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (91). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
