Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-11
Options put/call open interest 0.29, read 2026-10-25
Ethical passes the values gate
Price113.55 USD
Fair value152.76
Ethical score91.1/100
RatingSTRONG OPPORTUNITY
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-09Read Markdown129.00-12.0% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-08-08Read Markup133.01-14.6% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 12% rise in 5 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution118.40-4.1% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution with results news in the headlines
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
PulteGroup holds its Markup at $113.55. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 65 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-16
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 65 days
Price at the screen
$113.55
Valuation
11.59 trailing · 10.47 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 91.1
Beta
1.16
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
12.73%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 12.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.93%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
12.37%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 12.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.26%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
PulteGroup clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 13%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-25. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when PHM's ethical verdict changes
Today PHM passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads STRONG OPPORTUNITY: it trades at roughly a 35% discount to our $152.76 fair value, moderate competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-16 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 34.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 17 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +22% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-16 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Homebuilders look cheap until the cycle turns
Think of the US housing market as a busy roundabout where every new family needs a home yet the flow of buyers keeps speeding up and slowing down. PulteGroup sits right in the middle of that flow, building single family houses across the country with a moderate moat and a 16 percent return on equity.
The stock trades at 11.4 times forward earnings with a 15 percent margin of safety to our $145 fair value, a 12 percent profit margin and analyst targets clustered at the same level. It clears our ethical screen and shows the kind of cash generation that often rewards patient owners in this sector.
Yet residential construction remains deeply cyclical. Revenue already fell 12 percent and a low multiple on peak earnings is usually a warning rather than a bargain. Housing demand can stall fast when rates or sentiment shift. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PHM trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-22Markdown$113.55+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $135. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$113.55+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $135. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Markdown$113.55+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $135. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19Markdown$113.55+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $136. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markdown$113.55+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $136. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17Markdown$113.55+0.5%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $136. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Markdown$112.99+0.8%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $137. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15Markdown$112.12+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $137. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14Markdown$112.12-5.9%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $137.
2026-10-02Markdown$119.13-7.7%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $141.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
