Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Lennar holds its Markdown at $80.76. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$80.76
Valuation
12.66 trailing · 12.59 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 89.5
Beta
1.40
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
17.06%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 17.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
1.01%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.71%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades above our $71.36 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 11.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +5% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Housing cycles punish thin returns fast
When mortgage rates stay high, families delay the biggest purchase of their lives and every extra unsold home sits on the builder's books. Lennar builds across the main US regions yet shows only a narrow edge, single digit returns on equity and revenue already falling 5%.
A forward multiple of 12.7 times looks modest until you see profit margins stuck at 5%. The opportunity rating and clean ethical screen do not change the fact that this remains a classic cyclical business where low multiples often flag peak earnings rather than bargains.
Analysts hold a neutral stance with targets barely above the current price. Any fresh drop in buyer demand would cut volumes and margins quickly. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LEN trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-12Markdown$80.76+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $86. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-11Markdown$80.76+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $86. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-10Markdown$80.76-7.2%Entry 7
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $86. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-09Markdown · changed$87.02+0.0%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $86. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $86.
2026-08-04Markdown · changed$87.65-3.1%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $89.
2026-07-18Distribution$90.49+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (13 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $89.
2026-07-03Distribution$90.49+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$90.49Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
