Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.69, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price16.54 USD
Fair value16.45
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readFairas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-21Read Accumulation17.77-6.9% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 9% rise in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Distribution16.27+1.7% to today Markup gives way to Distribution
2026-07-02Read Markup16.58-0.2% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Ecopetrol SAADR holds its Markup at $16.54. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 12 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 12 days
Price at the screen
$16.54
Valuation
8.99 trailing · 8.52 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
-0.08
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
38.69%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 38.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.52%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
5.32%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 5.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.04%
Below 5%
Only 1.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Ecopetrol's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 39% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades above our $16.45 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 35.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 0.5% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $16.45, with a range of $12.31 to $20.51, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Colombian Oil Major Trades Above Its Worth
Picture a state-tied oil company whose every barrel must cross shifting politics and volatile prices before it reaches global markets. Ecopetrol clears the ethical screen yet we pass because the shares already sit 16 percent above fair value, revenue is falling 9 percent, and the narrow moat offers little protection.
Forward earnings sit at 10.3 times while profit margins run just 8 percent and return on equity reaches only 12 percent. Eleven analysts rate the name underperform with a median target of 14 dollars, underscoring that the low multiple reflects peak-cycle earnings rather than a bargain.
In a cyclical industry the trap is classic: a depressed multiple often signals earnings about to roll over, not cheap assets. Currency swings and local policy risk only widen the gap between price and durable value. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Colombia and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
EC trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Colombia). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Accumulation$17.77+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 28% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 93%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (11 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $13.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 93%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (11 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-10-14Distribution$16.94+4.1%Entry 7
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 42% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 93%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (11 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $13.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 42% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 93%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (11 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-08-27Markup$16.79+4.4%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 42% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 93%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (11 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-27Markup$16.09-3.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 42% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 93%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (11 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-18Markup$16.58+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 42% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 93%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (11 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-03Markup$16.58+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$16.58Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
