An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Ecopetrol S.A.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $15.80
Ecopetrol SA ADR holds its Markup at $15.80.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-27
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 17 days
Price
$15.80
Valuation
10.53 trailing · 10.06 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
-0.01
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$15.80
10.53 P/E · 10.06 fwd
Our fair value
$12.78
19% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$14.00
-11% to current
Target low $9.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $18.00
▲ current $15.80 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$15.80
you are here
Conservative
$8.67
-45%
Analyst avg
$14.00
-11%
Our fair value
$12.78
-19%
Analyst high
$18.00
+14%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Revenue growth
-8.70%
Profit margin
7.52%
Debt to equity
103.17
Analyst consensus
Underperform · 11 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard — its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Colombian Oil Major Trades Above Its Worth
Picture a state-tied oil company whose every barrel must cross shifting politics and volatile prices before it reaches global markets. Ecopetrol clears the ethical screen yet we pass because the shares already sit 16 percent above fair value, revenue is falling 9 percent, and the narrow moat offers little protection.
Forward earnings sit at 10.3 times while profit margins run just 8 percent and return on equity reaches only 12 percent. Eleven analysts rate the name underperform with a median target of 14 dollars, underscoring that the low multiple reflects peak-cycle earnings rather than a bargain.
In a cyclical industry the trap is classic: a depressed multiple often signals earnings about to roll over, not cheap assets. Currency swings and local policy risk only widen the gap between price and durable value. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 42% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 93%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (11 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $13. Entered 2026-07-27 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-27Markup$16.09-3.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 42% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 93%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (11 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-18Markup$16.58+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 42% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 93%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (11 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-03Markup$16.58+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$16.58Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming EC
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
9 Jun2026
Gil Cisneros
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
7 Feb2025
Tim Walberg
Republican
buy
1K–15K
7 Feb2025
Tim Walberg
Republican
buy
15K–50K
5 Jun2026
Gil Cisneros
Democrat
sell
1K–15K
5 Jun2026
Gil Cisneros
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$12.79
+29.4%
·
$1,294
+29.4%
2 months
$13.43
+23.2%
$0.66
$1,281
+28.1%
3 months
$13.29
+24.5%
$0.66
$1,295
+29.5%
6 months
$9.35
+77.0%
$0.66
$1,841
+84.1%
1 year
$8.59
+92.5%
$0.66
$2,002
+100.2%
2 years
$9.76
+69.5%
$2.45
$1,946
+94.6%
3 years
$6.87
+140.8%
$4.91
$3,122
+212.2%
5 years
$6.88
+140.5%
$8.09
$3,580
+258.0%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever EC does next, these words stay.
Ecopetrol SA ADR · EC · Markup · $15.80
Recorded 2026-07-27 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
