Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.03, read 2026-10-24
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price62.08 USD
Fair value55.70
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Accumulation58.85+5.5% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 5% rise in 2 weeks
2026-10-14Read Markup56.00+10.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-10-02Read Distribution54.39+14.1% to today Markup gives way to Distribution first Distribution read since July
2026-08-27Read Markup54.05+14.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup with volume flow in agreement
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Eni Spa ADR holds its Accumulation at $62.08. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$62.08
Valuation
20.51 trailing · 8.98 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.26
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Revenue purity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
24.95%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 25.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.03%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
12.46%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 12.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
8.76%
Below 5%
8.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Eni Spa clears the business-activity screen, and its debt is inside the line. Where it falls short is income purity: around 9% of its income right now is non-operating interest income, against a roughly 5% ceiling, so it does not pass. That reflects what it earns today, not the business itself, and it could clear the screen if its operating revenue grows and the interest share falls.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today E does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 5.3% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Oil major hides a classic cycle trap
Think of Eni like a tanker sailing into a storm. Every time crude prices spike the earnings look strong, yet the moment demand fades the results collapse. At a 9.5 times forward multiple the shares appear inexpensive, yet revenue has already dropped 13 percent while the firm earns just a 3 percent profit margin and a 6 percent return on equity.
We pass. The narrow moat and lack of any margin of safety at current prices leave no room for error. Analysts sit on a hold rating with a median target barely above the last trade, and the ethical screen offers no extra comfort when the underlying numbers are this thin.
The real danger is the cyclical value trap. Low multiples in energy often mark peak earnings rather than bargains, and a downturn would quickly expose the weak returns. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Italy and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
E trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Italy). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 79%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-10-21Markup$58.85+5.1%Entry 8
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 79%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-10-14Markup · changed$56.00+3.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 79%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $56.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 79%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-08-27Markup · changed$54.05+3.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 79%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-07-27Distribution$52.40-2.6%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 79%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-07-18Distribution$53.80+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 79%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-07-03Distribution$53.80+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$53.80Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
