Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Equinor ASA ADR holds its Markup at $44.80. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$44.80
Valuation
12.14 trailing · 11.08 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
-0.73
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
23.70%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 23.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
3.39%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
11.59%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 11.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.98%
Below 5%
Only 1.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 21.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −19% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Oil Giant Trades Above Its Fair Value
Picture an oil trader watching Brent swing from $60 to $120 and back again. Equinor sits right in that storm, yet its shares sit 14% above our fair value with revenue already falling 5%. The low 10 times forward earnings look tempting on the surface, but in a cyclical industry that multiple often signals peak profits rather than a bargain.
We pass on Equinor for one clear reason. The business carries only a narrow moat, returns just 12% on equity and 5% profit margins, and offers no margin of safety at the current price. Six analysts rate it a hold with a median target of $33, reinforcing that the market sees limited upside.
The real danger lies in the cycle itself. When energy prices roll over, earnings collapse faster than the multiple can expand, turning an apparently cheap stock into a value trap. Ethical screen clears, yet the numbers still do not justify stepping in. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Norway and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
EQNR trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Norway). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-23Markup · changed$39.46+5.6%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $37.
2026-07-22Distribution$37.37+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $37. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Distribution$37.37+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $37. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Distribution$37.37+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $37. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-19Distribution$37.37+3.3%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 3.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $37. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Distribution$36.18+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $37. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17Distribution$36.18+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $37. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-16Distribution$36.18+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 32% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (6 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $37. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Distribution$36.18+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$36.18Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
