Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.27, read 2026-10-27
Ethical passes the values gate
Price128.83 USD
Fair value91.28
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-21Read Accumulation129.59-0.6% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown126.17+2.1% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-09-02Read Accumulation131.49-2.0% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation after an 8% rise in 9 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution121.29+6.2% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Imperial Oil Ltd holds its Accumulation at $128.83. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 366 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-27
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 366 days
Price at the screen
$128.83
Valuation
20.28 trailing · 14.67 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.82
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
9.80%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 9.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
13.03%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 13.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.03%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Imperial Oil clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 10%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when IMO's ethical verdict changes
Today IMO passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 29.6% above the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Oil Price Spikes Mask a Cyclical Trap
Crude prices jump and integrated Canadian producers suddenly flash cheap multiples on screens. Imperial Oil sits right in that frame, with upstream output feeding downstream refineries and a narrow moat that has never widened much.
We pass. The shares trade at a 30 percent premium to our fair value, revenue has stalled, and the single analyst covering it already flags underperform. A forward multiple of 16 times offers no cushion once energy prices roll over, which they always do.
The real danger is the classic cyclical value trap. Peak-cycle earnings can look attractive on a low multiple until volumes and margins reset, leaving investors holding the bag. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
IMO trades on NYSE AMERICAN (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Accumulation$129.59+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 64%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $107.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 64%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $107.
2026-10-14Markdown$123.01-2.5%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 64%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $107.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$126.17-4.0%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 64%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $107.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 64%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $107.
2026-08-02Distribution$125.79+3.7%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 64%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $107.
2026-07-18Distribution$121.29+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 64%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (1 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $107.
2026-07-03Distribution$121.29+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$121.29Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
