2026-10-25
ExxonMobil clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 20:04 UTC
The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated
ExxonMobil
XOM · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $727.8B · 57,900 employees
Exxon Mobil Corporation engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States, Canada, and internationally.
Not yet scored183.21 USD
Price as of 23 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quoteLast reviewed 5 days ago
Screened 2026-10-23 · the tape above runs as of 20:04 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price183.21 USD at the 23 Oct 2026 close
- Our ratingQuality, fully valued, current read accumulation
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.28)
- Last reviewed23 Oct 2026 (5 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 183.21 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 137.81, over the last year.
- Trend Accumulation
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-08-31
- Options put/call open interest 0.28, read 2026-10-27
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price183.21 USD
Fair value137.81
Ethical score93.7/100
RatingQUALITY, FULLY VALUED
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Accumulation160.59+14.1% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation first Accumulation read since July
2026-08-31Read Markdown166.15+10.3% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 6% rise in 5 weeks
2026-07-30Read Accumulation156.94+16.7% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 7% rise in 6 days
2026-07-24Read Distribution147.36+24.3% to today Markup gives way to Distribution with results news in the headlines
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its accumulation label.
ExxonMobil holds its Accumulation at $183.21. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 367 days.
| Phase | Accumulation |
| Quantitative state | The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 367 days |
| Price at the screen | $183.21 |
| Valuation | 22.78 trailing · 15.24 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 93.7 |
| Beta | 0.21 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 9.70% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 9.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.06% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.1% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 10.34% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 10.3% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
ExxonMobil clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
ExxonMobil clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 10%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · BDS Movement
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Cited by BDS movement for energy operations and corporate relationships connected to Israeli energy infrastructure and resource extraction. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads QUALITY, FULLY VALUED: it trades above our $137.81 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 44.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 21.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 22 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits −3% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsOil Giants, Big Profits, Big Risks
Imagine the heart of the global energy industry, pumping crude oil and natural gas through its veins - that's ExxonMobil. Operating in the cyclical world of oil and gas, it's a business that swings with the price of oil, and right now, its revenue is growing by a hefty 44%. This is why it stands out; it's performing well amidst a volatile energy market, and with a forward P/E of 15.6x, the market is pricing ExxonMobil at a discount compared to our fair value of $130.11, offering a margin of safety of -22%.
However, risk is not a stranger to ExxonMobil. The cyclical nature of the industry means that the current 9% profit margin and 13% return on equity could be masking a peak earnings scenario - a classic value trap. The narrow moat indicates a limited competitive advantage, and while 22 analysts rate it a buy with a median target of $170, the ethical screen does pass, suggesting that despite the profits, there's a level of responsibility in their operations.
Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 15.2xcheap for a company growing this fast |
| Trailing P/E | 22.8xa premium valuation |
| EPS, trailing | 7.77 |
| EPS, forward | 11.61 |
| Revenue growth | +44.1%growing very fast |
| Profit margin | 9.1%thin but positive margins |
| Return on equity | 12.6%a solid return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | 2.84% |
| Dividend yield | 2.70% |
| Debt to equity | 0.16minimal debt: a conservative balance sheet |
| Current ratio | 1.14adequate liquidity, worth monitoring |
| Beta | 0.21barely tracks the market's swings |
| Short interest, float | 0.01% |
| 52-week range | 110.39 - 177.43 |
| Moat | NARROW |
| Market cap | $727.8B |
| Employees | 57,900 |
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeXOM trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28
Accumulation $174.68
+0.0% Entry 20
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27
Accumulation $174.68
+0.0% Entry 19
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26
Accumulation $174.68
+0.0% Entry 18
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25
Accumulation $174.68
+0.0% Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24
Accumulation $174.68
+0.0% Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23
Accumulation $174.68
+0.0% Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18
Accumulation $174.68
+8.8% Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 8.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168.
2026-10-11
Accumulation $160.59
+0.0% Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168.
2026-10-02
Accumulation · changed $160.59
-3.3% Entry 12
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 3.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168.
2026-08-31
Markdown · changed $166.15
+5.9% Entry 11
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 5.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $168.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
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| Date | Insider | Title | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | TALLEY DARRIN L | Officer | 1,080 | $167,935 | |
| 2026-03-02 | TALLEY DARRIN L | Officer | 2,150 | $339,313 | |
| 2026-02-09 | TALLEY DARRIN L | Officer | 3,230 | $481,835 | |
| 2026-02-02 | TALLEY DARRIN L | Officer | 5,000 | $698,753 | |
| 2026-01-02 | KELLNER LAWRENCE W. | Director | 2,500 | · | |
| 2026-01-02 | HOOLEY JOSEPH L. | Director | 2,500 | · | |
| 2026-01-02 | KARSNER ALEXANDER A | Director | 2,500 | · | |
| 2026-01-02 | BRALY ANGELA F | Director | 2,500 | · | |
| 2026-01-02 | KANDARIAN STEVEN A | Director | 2,500 | · | |
| 2026-01-02 | UBBEN JEFFREY W | Director | 2,500 | · |
Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.
| Date | Politician | Party | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Kevin Hern | Republican | sell | 100K–250K |
| 2026-08-31 | Kevin Hern | Republican | sell | 100K–250K |
| 2026-08-31 | Kevin Hern | Republican | sell | 100K–250K |
| 2026-07-02 | Michael Guest | Republican | exchange | 1K–15K |
| 2026-07-02 | Michael Guest | Republican | exchange | 1K–15K |
| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $148.67 | +1.3% | $1.03 | $1,020 | +2.0% |
| 2 months | $151.48 | -0.6% | $1.03 | $1,001 | +0.1% |
| 3 months | $152.49 | -1.2% | $1.03 | $994 | -0.6% |
| 6 months | $117.95 | +27.7% | $2.06 | $1,294 | +29.4% |
| 1 year | $103.91 | +45.0% | $4.08 | $1,489 | +48.9% |
| 2 years | $105.89 | +42.2% | $8.00 | $1,498 | +49.8% |
| 3 years | $97.15 | +55.1% | $11.76 | $1,672 | +67.2% |
| 5 years | $51.73 | +191.2% | $18.88 | $3,277 | +227.7% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever XOM does next, these words stay.
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Join the deskScreening is research, not a fatwa and not financial advice. Figures are drawn from public accounts at the screen date shown. Always manage your risk.