Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Suncor Energy Inc holds its Markup at $68.83. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$68.83
Valuation
12.65 trailing · 11.92 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.56
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
16.13%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 16.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
9.72%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 9.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.01%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 14.3% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +1% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Oil Sands Look Cheap Until Cycle Turns
Oil prices swing like a pendulum and Suncor sits right in the path. At 11.2 times forward earnings the shares appear inexpensive next to 18 percent revenue growth and a 14 percent return on equity. Yet the narrow moat and negative margin of safety at current prices tell a different story.
We pass because this is classic cyclical value trap territory. Peak cycle earnings often produce low multiples that look attractive until demand falls and profits follow. The 12 percent profit margin and narrow competitive edge offer little protection when the downturn arrives.
Currency swings, oil volatility and Canadian regulatory pressure add further uncertainty. Analyst targets sit higher but ignore how quickly those numbers reset when the cycle moves. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SU trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-04Markup$65.36+2.1%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $63.
2026-08-04Markup$64.00+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $63. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Markup · changed$64.00+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $63. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Distribution$64.00+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $63. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Distribution$64.00+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $63. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-31Distribution$64.00+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $63. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Distribution$64.00+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $63. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Distribution$64.00+3.9%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 3.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $63. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Distribution$61.60+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 29% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 67%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $63.
2026-07-03Distribution$61.60+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
