Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.19, read 2026-10-24
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price24.40 USD
Fair value34.87
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown30.95-21.2% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 9% slide in 3 weeks
2026-09-12Read Distribution34.19-28.6% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 22% rise in 10 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup28.04-13.0% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Seabridge Gold Inc. holds its Markdown at $24.40. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$24.40
Valuation
129.15 trailing · -92.25 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.86
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
33.94%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 33.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.49%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.5% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
6.90%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 6.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Seabridge Gold's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 34% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +155% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gold Explorers Chase Riches That Rarely Materialise
Picture a firm that spends years and millions hunting for gold deposits yet never turns a profit from actual output. This Canadian explorer matches that description, with zero profit margins, a negative return on equity and deeply negative forward earnings. We pass because the opportunity rating stands at none and the ethical screen returns insufficient data on basic financial ratios.
The model depends on exploration wins across North American properties in a sector that rises and falls with gold prices. Even the gap to analyst targets fails to offset the lack of any proven cash flow or competitive edge in a business where most projects never reach production.
Cyclical value traps often appear when earnings look depressed and multiples seem low, yet here the losses simply highlight exposure to volatile commodity swings and repeated dilution from funding rounds. Failed drilling campaigns remain the norm rather than the exception. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SA trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-25Markdown$25.83+2.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (3 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $63.
2026-10-18Markdown$25.32-18.2%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 18.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (3 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $63.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$30.95-9.5%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (3 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $63.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 9.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (3 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $63.
2026-08-12Markup$31.13+11.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 11.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (3 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $63.
2026-07-18Markup$28.04+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (3 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $63.
2026-07-03Markup$28.04+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$28.04Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
