Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 17:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Orla Mining Ltd. holds its Markdown at $9.44. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 21 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 21 days
Price at the screen
$9.44
Valuation
13.11 trailing · 5.35 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.17
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
17.62%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 17.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
20.72%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 20.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.79%
Below 5%
Only 0.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gold miner flashes cheap yet cycle warns caution
Picture a miner chasing gold veins that shine bright one year and vanish the next as prices swing like a pendulum. Orla shows eye catching revenue growth of 169 percent, a 19 percent profit margin and 42 percent return on equity, all at a forward multiple of just 5.3 times with a clean ethical pass and a 35 percent gap to our fair value. The business clears our basic screens on paper.
Yet we pass. Gold miners sit in a deeply cyclical trade where earnings peak when metal prices peak, and a low multiple often marks the top rather than a bargain. One analyst target sits much higher, but that does not change the pattern we have seen repeat across commodity cycles.
The real risk is mistaking a temporary price spike for lasting value. When gold cools, margins compress fast and the low multiple offers little protection. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ORLA trades on NYSE American (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-08Markdown$9.44+9.6%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 9.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (1 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-08-07Markdown · changed$8.61-19.2%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 19.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (1 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-07-18Distribution$10.65+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (1 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $22.
2026-07-03Distribution$10.65+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$10.65Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
