An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Centerra Gold Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $15.09
Centerra Gold Inc. holds its Markup at $15.09.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 47 days
Price
$15.09
Valuation
4.87 trailing · 7.45 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.56
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$15.09
4.87 P/E · 7.45 fwd
Our fair value
$20.19
34% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$23.25
+54% to current
Target low $17.50Analyst target rangeTarget high $29.00
▲ current $15.09 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$15.09
you are here
Conservative
$15.75
+4%
Analyst avg
$23.25
+54%
Our fair value
$20.19
+34%
Analyst high
$29.00
+92%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
61.80%
Profit margin
40.32%
Debt to equity
2.09
Analyst consensus
Buy · 2 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Gold Miner Numbers Shine But Cycles Often Trap
Every time gold prices spike, miners like this one post eye-watering margins and revenue surges that make the shares look like a bargain at 7.4 times forward earnings. Yet the business sits in a classic cyclical industry where peak profits and low multiples usually mark the top of the cycle rather than a durable entry point. We pass because the apparent 34 percent margin of safety rests on earnings that history shows can vanish quickly when prices turn.
Revenue growth of 62 percent and 34 percent return on equity look impressive on paper, but these figures tend to reflect temporary metal prices rather than repeatable advantages in a commodity business with no clear moat. The ethical screen clears without issue, yet that alone does not override the structural warning embedded in the valuation.
Risk sits in sharp swings in gold and copper prices plus operating exposure across multiple jurisdictions that can amplify losses during downturns. The low multiple is a signal to stay cautious, not a reason to step in. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
PEERS
Related securities · others in CGAU's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
CGAU trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 6.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 112%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18. Entered 2026-07-24 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-24Markup · changed$15.09-6.5%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 6.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 112%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-18Distribution$16.14+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 112%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-03Distribution$16.14+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$16.14Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$18.67
-20.3%
$0.05
$800
-20.0%
2 months
$19.40
-23.3%
$0.05
$770
-23.0%
3 months
$18.48
-19.4%
$0.10
$811
-18.9%
6 months
$14.20
+4.9%
$0.10
$1,056
+5.6%
1 year
$7.01
+112.4%
$0.10
$2,139
+113.9%
2 years
$6.57
+126.7%
$0.30
$2,313
+131.3%
3 years
$5.55
+168.4%
$0.51
$2,776
+177.6%
5 years
$7.25
+105.4%
$0.94
$2,183
+118.3%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever CGAU does next, these words stay.
Centerra Gold Inc. · CGAU · Markup · $15.09
Recorded 2026-07-19 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
