Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Centerra Gold Inc. holds its Accumulation at $22.08. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$22.08
Valuation
7.05 trailing · 11.43 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.63
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
0.64%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
7.42%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 7.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
22.20%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 22.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.50%
Below 5%
Only 1.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 23.4% above the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gold Miner Numbers Shine But Cycles Often Trap
Every time gold prices spike, miners like this one post eye-watering margins and revenue surges that make the shares look like a bargain at 7.4 times forward earnings. Yet the business sits in a classic cyclical industry where peak profits and low multiples usually mark the top of the cycle rather than a durable entry point. We pass because the apparent 34 percent margin of safety rests on earnings that history shows can vanish quickly when prices turn.
Revenue growth of 62 percent and 34 percent return on equity look impressive on paper, but these figures tend to reflect temporary metal prices rather than repeatable advantages in a commodity business with no clear moat. The ethical screen clears without issue, yet that alone does not override the structural warning embedded in the valuation.
Risk sits in sharp swings in gold and copper prices plus operating exposure across multiple jurisdictions that can amplify losses during downturns. The low multiple is a signal to stay cautious, not a reason to step in. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CGAU trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-25Markup$21.24+40.8%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 40.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 112%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-24Markup · changed$15.09-6.5%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 6.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 112%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-18Distribution$16.14+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 112%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-03Distribution$16.14+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$16.14Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
