NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,412+0.27%BTC$77,965+2.04%VIX15.48+0.26%live tape · as of 17:00 UTC
The Screen · Basic Materials · Gold
Aris Mining Corporation
ARIS · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $3.8B · 3,578 employees
Aris Mining Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold properties in Canada, Colombia, and Guyana.
Screened 2026-09-16 · the tape above runs as of 17:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Aris Mining Corporation holds its Markup at $18.23. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 42 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-16
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 42 days
Price at the screen
$18.23
Valuation
12.93 trailing · 6.32 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
2.04
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
20.96%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 21.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.31%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.99%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 16.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.36%
Below 5%
Only 1.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-16 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-16 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gold miner flashes cheap multiple with cycle trap written large
Picture a Canadian outfit digging gold in Colombia and Guyana while revenue doubles in a year and the shares change hands at four times forward earnings. Aris Mining clears the ethical screen cleanly and the arithmetic shows a 35 percent gap to fair value. Those figures alone tend to stop traders in their tracks.
Yet the business sits squarely inside a cyclical industry where low multiples often mark the top of the earnings cycle rather than a bargain. Revenue growth of 136 percent and a 15 percent profit margin look impressive on paper, but gold prices and local operating conditions can reverse quickly and leave peak profits stranded. One analyst target at 37 dollars changes none of that arithmetic.
Return on equity sits at just 13 percent with no visible moat, so any downturn in metal prices or permitting would hit hard. The setup matches the classic cyclical value trap more than a durable entry point.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ARIS trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-21Markup · changed$17.75+27.3%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 27.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 124%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%.
2026-07-21Distribution$13.94-12.3%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 12.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 124%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%.
2026-07-18Distribution$15.89+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 124%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%.
2026-07-17Distribution$15.89+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 124%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%.
2026-07-03Distribution$15.89+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$15.89Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
