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The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated
YPF ADR
YPF · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $20.5B
YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in South America and Argentina.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
52.41 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-03
Screened 2026-09-03 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
YPF ADR holds its Accumulation at $52.41. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 131 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-03
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 131 days
Price at the screen
$52.41
Valuation
27.73 trailing · 9.56 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
-0.07
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
37.88%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 37.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.89%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.49%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.43%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 1.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +14% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Argentina Oil Play Hides a Value Trap
Every time crude prices jump, money flows into Argentine energy names that look cheap on a screen. YPF shows revenue up 43 percent yet posts a negative 2 percent profit margin and minus 3 percent return on equity, so the 8.6 times forward multiple simply marks peak-cycle earnings rather than a genuine bargain.
We pass despite an ethical screen clearance. The narrow moat and Argentina exposure leave no durable advantage, and the 7 percent gap to fair value offers no real protection once the cycle rolls over.
Currency swings, government meddling and oil price reversals can erase the apparent discount overnight. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Argentina and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
YPF trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Argentina). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-19Markdown · changed$52.70-5.7%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $57.
2026-07-18Markup$55.89+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 50%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (13 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $57.
2026-07-03Markup$55.89+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$55.89Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
