Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.24, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price94.38 USD
Fair value110.00
Ethical score30.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Markdown94.38+0.0% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown while volume still accumulates
2026-10-29Read Accumulation98.00-3.7% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 6% rise in 4 weeks
2026-10-02Read Distribution92.35+2.2% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after a 15% rise in 13 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup80.20+17.7% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Grupo Cibest S.A. holds its Markdown at $94.38. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 56 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 56 days
Price at the screen
$94.38
Valuation
11.09 trailing · 7.98 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.44
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: bank
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Grupo Cibest does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 14% discount to our $110.00 fair value, 26.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 14.2% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $110.00, with a range of $110.00 to $188.76, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Colombian Banking Looks Cheap Until Ethics Bite
Picture a shop owner in Medellín needing working capital or a family sending money home from abroad. The cash moves through local banks such as Grupo Cibest that handle deposits, loans and transfers across Colombia and beyond. Those everyday flows generate steady revenue growth of 11 percent and a 17 percent return on equity.
We pass on this name outright. The ethical screen flags the entire banking sector as off limits, so the forward multiple of 8.2 times earnings, 15 percent profit margin and slim margin of safety above current prices never come into play. Analyst consensus already sits at hold with a lower median target, and we see no reason to override the screen.
Emerging-market currency swings and credit cycles remain real threats even when multiples look modest. Peak earnings in regional banking often coincide with the lowest multiples, turning apparent value into a trap once conditions turn. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Colombia and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CIB trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Colombia). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Markdown · changed$94.38-3.7%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 85%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $64.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 25% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 85%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $64.
2026-10-22Distribution$97.91+3.3%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 3.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 85%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $64.
2026-10-15Distribution$94.81+2.7%Entry 7
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 85%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $64.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 85%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $64.
2026-08-25Markup$101.43+26.1%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 26.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 85%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $64.
2026-07-24Markup$80.41+0.3%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 85%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $64.
2026-07-18Markup$80.20+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 85%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $64.
2026-07-03Markup$80.20+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$80.20Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
