Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-09
Options put/call open interest 0.50, read 2026-11-04
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price2,304.72 USD
Fair value2,730.00
Ethical score30.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-06Read Markup2,304.72+0.0% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 9% rise in 2 weeks
2026-10-22Read Accumulation2,123.74+8.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown2,098.23+9.8% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
2026-08-28Read Accumulation2,183.54+5.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 5% rise in 8 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
First Citizens Bancshares Inc (NC) holds its Markup at $2,304.72. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 8 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 8 days
Price at the screen
$2,304.72
Valuation
12.08 trailing · 11.05 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.58
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Excluded industry: Banks - Regional
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Excluded industry: Banks - Regional
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
First Citizens Bancshares Inc (NC) does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today FCNCA does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 16% discount to our $2,730.00 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 6.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 15.6% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $2,730.00, with a range of $2,317.86 to $3,863.09, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Regional Banks Fail Our Ethical Line
Picture the quiet flow of deposits from high street savers into loans that fuel everything from car lots to farm equipment. First Citizens moves that money across the US with steady but unspectacular results. Revenue edges up 5 percent, margins sit at 25 percent and return on equity reaches just 10 percent.
We pass on the name outright. The ethical screen excludes regional banks by design, regardless of the 10.6 times forward earnings or the narrow moat the business claims. Analyst targets around 2305 dollars offer little incentive once that filter is applied.
Even without the screen the low multiple on a cyclical lender would flag caution rather than opportunity, with earnings sensitive to rate cycles and credit losses. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FCNCA trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-06Markup · changed$2,304.72-3.0%Entry 16
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $2211.
2026-10-30Accumulation$2,375.84+11.9%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 11.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $2211.
2026-10-23Accumulation$2,123.74+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $2211. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $2211. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$2,123.74+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $2211. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Markdown$2,123.74+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $2211. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19Markdown$2,123.74+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $2211. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markdown$2,123.74+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $2211. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17Markdown$2,123.74+2.3%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $2211. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Markdown$2,075.12-1.1%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (12 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $2211. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
