NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,118+6.17%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 15:00 UTC
The Screen · Financials · Banks - Regional
Banco do Brasil S.A.
BDORY · OID · USD · Market cap $24.7B · 84,619 employees
Banco do Brasil S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services for individuals, companies, and public sectors in Brazil and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
4.32 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Banco do Brasil S.A. holds its Markup at $4.32. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 278 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 278 days
Price at the screen
$4.32
Valuation
10.29 trailing · 5.38 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.23
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Financial sector: banks
Fail
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $3.98 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 0.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 7.8% above the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
State Lender Trips Ethical Alarm First
Picture a Brazilian farmer or civil servant wiring wages through the biggest state-owned bank in the country. The operation runs on public-sector ties that most private lenders avoid. That same link triggers our ethical screen and rules the name out before any valuation debate starts.
We pass for two clear reasons. The ethical flag sits at the top, and the numbers offer little comfort to offset it. Revenue is down 22 percent, return on equity sits at just 9 percent, and the thin 1 percent margin of safety above our fair value does nothing to change the call.
A 4.3 times forward multiple looks tempting on a regional bank until you remember earnings can swing hard with Brazilian policy and commodity cycles. One analyst target sits at the current price, so the market already prices in modest expectations. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Brazil and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BDORY trades on OID (the company is based in Brazil). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-23Distribution$3.64-10.8%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 10.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $4.
2026-07-22Distribution$4.08+4.6%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $4.
2026-07-18Distribution$3.90+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $4.
2026-07-03Distribution$3.90+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$3.90Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
