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The Screen · Financials · Banks - Regional
KeyCorp
KEY · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $23.2B · 17,469 employees
KeyCorp operates as the holding company for KeyBank National Association that provides various retail and commercial banking products and services in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
21.73 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
KeyCorp holds its Markdown at $21.73. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 262 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 262 days
Price at the screen
$21.73
Valuation
12.71 trailing · 10.17 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.02
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 31% discount to our $28.53 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 10.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 31.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 19 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +15% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Everyday banking hides an ethical red flag
When a family in Cleveland takes out a mortgage or a small manufacturer needs working capital, KeyCorp is one of the names that shows up. We are staying away, for one reason that has nothing to do with the 11 times forward earnings or the 12 percent revenue growth. It fails our ethical screen on business activity grounds.
The narrow moat and 10 percent return on equity already signal limited pricing power in a crowded regional banking market. Add the cyclical nature of lending and the fact that low multiples often mark peak earnings rather than bargains, and the apparent 22 percent discount to fair value loses its appeal.
Nineteen analysts may still rate it a buy with targets around 25 dollars, yet our screen exists to filter exactly these cases. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
KEY trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-03Markdown · changed$21.87-3.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-08-03Markup · changed$22.63+4.0%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $25.
2026-07-18Markdown$21.76+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $25.
2026-07-03Markdown$21.76+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$21.76Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.