KEY
KeyCorp
Financials · Regional Banks · US
$21.60
✗ ETHICAL FAIL

NARROW MOAT
HIGH
Data Confidence: 100%
Full financial profile available
Market Cap
$23.4B
Trailing P/E
13.30
Forward P/E
10.10
Rev Growth
+11.8%
Profit Margin
27.0%
ROE
10.0%
Analyst Target
$24.97
Recommendation
BUY
About KeyCorp

KeyCorp operates as the holding company for KeyBank National Association that provides various retail and commercial banking products and services in the United States. It operates in two segments, Consumer Bank and Commercial Bank. The company offers various deposits and investment products; personal finance and financial wellness, lending, student loan refinancing, mortgage and home equity, credit card, treasury, and business advisory; commercial leasing, investment management, consumer finance; and wealth management and investment services for institutional, non-profit, and high-net-worth clients. It also provides lending, cash management, equipment financing, and commercial mortgage loans; and capital market products and services, such as syndicated finance, debt and equity underwriting, fixed income and equity sales and trading, derivatives, foreign exchange, mergers and acquisition, other advisory services, and public finance to large corporate and institutional clients. In addition, the company offers personal and institutional trust custody services, personal financial and planning services, access to mutual funds, treasury services, and international banking services. Further, it provides community development financing, securities underwriting, brokerage, and investment banking services, as well as merchant services. The company was founded in 1849 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.

Opportunity Summary
Trading at $22 against a fair value of $43, a 50% discount. Fails ethical screen (Business activity screen). Ranks better than 75% of screened stocks.
Ethical Screen
Business ActivityFAIL
Debt Ratio
Cash Ratio
Receivables Ratio
Revenue Ratio
OverallFAIL
Score Ethical: 10.0
Score Valuation: 88.0
Score Quality: 38.0
Score Combined: 44.0
Fair Value Est: $43.00 · Margin of Safety: +99.1% · Tier: AVOID

Full Analysis

Opportunity scores, earnings history, insider transactions, institutional holders, analyst consensus, and more.

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Opportunity Scores
Valuation100.0
Quality37.5
Cash Flow50.0
Moat70.0
Balance Sheet50.0
Debt Purity50.0
Liquid Purity50.0
Rev Purity50.0
Compliance100.0
Tier: GOLD · Score: 74.6 · Rank: #176
Earnings History (Last 8 Quarters)
DateEPS Est.Reported EPSSurprise %
2026-07-210.43Pending--
2026-04-160.410.44+8.0%
2026-01-200.390.41+6.3%
2025-10-160.380.41+7.6%
2025-07-220.340.35+1.9%
2025-04-170.320.33+4.0%
2025-01-210.330.38+16.7%
2024-10-170.22-0.47-309.4%
Quarterly Financials
PeriodRevenueNet IncomeEBITDAGross ProfitOp. IncomeEPS
2026-03-31$1.9B$522.0M0.45
2025-12-31$1.9B$510.0M0.43
2025-09-30$1.8B$489.0M0.41
2025-06-30$1.8B$425.0M0.35
2025-03-31$1.7B$405.0M0.34
2024-12-31
Insider Transactions
DateNameRoleSharesValue
2026-05-11HIPPLE RICHARD JDirector18,118--
2026-05-11SNYDER BARBARA RDirector18,118--
2026-05-11DALLAS HIRAM JAMESDirector18,118--
2026-05-11HAYES ROBINDirector18,118--
2026-05-11HIGHSMITH CARLTON LEEDirector18,118--
2026-05-08MAGO ANGELA GOfficer22,826$432.8K
2026-05-08MAGO ANGELA GOfficer22,826$494.4K
2026-04-01SNYDER BARBARA RDirector2,917--
2026-02-17WATERS JAMES LGeneral Counsel24,205--
2026-02-17ALEXANDER VICTOR BOfficer23,132--
Top Institutional Holders
HolderSharesValue% Held
Bank of Nova Scotia163.0M$3.5B0.2%
Blackrock Inc.88.7M$1.9B0.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC65.9M$1.4B0.1%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC51.5M$1.1B0.0%
State Street Corporation47.1M$1.0B0.0%
FMR, LLC46.7M$1.0B0.0%
Geode Capital Management, LLC25.4M$548.2M0.0%
Invesco Ltd.19.2M$414.7M0.0%
Wellington Management Group, LLP17.2M$370.1M0.0%
Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc16.7M$359.9M0.0%
Analyst Recommendations
3 Months Ago
3
7
9
19 analysts
2 Months Ago
3
9
10
22 analysts
Last Month
3
9
10
22 analysts
Current
2
7
9
18 analysts
Strong Buy Buy Hold Sell Strong Sell
Additional Fundamentals
Enterprise Value
$41.2B
Price/Book
1.34
Beta
1.055
Analysts
19
Total Revenue (TTM)
$7.2B
Total Debt
$17.7B
Earnings Growth
+33.3%
Dividend Yield
380.0%
Rec. Mean
2.11
Short % Float
0.0%
Employees
17,469

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Trade Consideration
The Opportunity
Score 44.0 (P57 — top 43.2% of scored tickers). Narrow Moat. Ethical FAIL. 18 analysts at Buy.
Price: $21.60 | Target: $25.03 (+16%) | Fair Value: $43.00 (+99%)
Score
44
Moat
NARROW
Conviction
Standard
Upside
+16%
The Fundamentals
Revenue Growth+11.8%
Profit Margin0.0%
ROE10.0%
Forward P/E10.1
Market Cap$23.4B
Earnings Track Record
DateEstimateReportedSurprise
2026-07-21$0.43Pending
2026-04-16$0.41$0.44+8.0%
2026-01-20$0.39$0.41+6.3%
2025-10-16$0.38$0.41+7.6%
2025-07-22$0.34$0.35+1.9%
2025-04-17$0.32$0.33+4.0%
Position Sizing Scenarios
Stop: $18.36 (-15%) | Entry: $21.60
SharesCostProfit to TargetR:R
To Consensus ($25.03, 18 analysts)
10$216.00+$34.30 (16%)1.1R
50$1,080.00+$171.50 (16%)1.1R
100$2,160.00+$343.00 (16%)1.1R
To Fair Value ($43.00)
10$216.00+$214.00 (99%)6.6R
50$1,080.00+$1,070.00 (99%)6.6R
100$2,160.00+$2,140.00 (99%)6.6R
Risk Factors
  • No elevated risk flags in current data
The Verdict
KeyCorp holds a narrow competitive moat and trades at a 99.1% discount to fair value.
Quantitative Grade

A single score combining all analytical layers below. A is strongest, D is weakest.

B
Quant Score
63.2
Risk Grade
LOW_RISK
Layers
8
Quality: CONSISTENT_BEATER,STRONG_EARNINGS_DRIFT
Risk Profile

How much could this ticker lose on a bad day? These metrics measure worst-case scenarios from historical data.

VaR 95%
-2.6%
worst expected daily loss, 19 in 20 days
CVaR 95%
-4.5%
avg loss on the worst 5% of days
Annual Volatility
Sortino Ratio
1.14
above 1.0 is good
Max Drawdown
-32.2%
Worst Day
Forward Outlook

Based on 10,000 simulated price paths, here is the probability of where this ticker could be in 30, 60, and 90 days.

30d Prob Up
90d Prob Up
Median Return 30d
Liquidity Score
90
Liquidity Grade
HIGHLY LIQUID
Trend & Momentum

What direction is this ticker actually moving, filtered through noise? Is it speeding up or slowing down?

Kalman Trend
Trend Strength
Momentum Signal
HMM Regime
RSI Signal
Technical Signals

Classic chart signals that institutional traders monitor. Golden Cross is bullish, Death Cross is bearish.

MA Crossover
ABOVE_200
Bollinger Position
UPPER_HALF
Beta
Relative Volume
0.7x
Short Interest
Financial Health

Is this company financially sound? The Z-Score measures bankruptcy risk. The F-Score measures fundamental strength.

Altman Z-Score
below 1.81 = distress zone
Piotroski F-Score
Earnings Beat Rate
87.5%
Earnings Consistency
Correlations

These tickers tend to move together (positive) or in opposite directions (negative). Useful for portfolio diversification.

Most Correlated
TickerCorrelation
CFG0.895
RF0.874
TFC0.864
FNB0.863
HBAN0.860
Inverse Correlated
TickerCorrelation
CINECO.BH-0.184
CBOE-0.182
SUKOON.AE-0.161
CME-0.142
SUNC-0.141
Seasonality

Does this ticker have consistent patterns on certain days or months? Historical tendencies, not guarantees.

Best Day
Wednesday
Worst Day
Thursday
Best Month
Nov
Worst Month
Mar
Fri-Mon Effect
-0.18166818767855167
Earnings Drift

After this company beats earnings, does the price keep going up? Drift tracks post-earnings momentum.

Avg Drift After Beat
+3.7%
Beat Drift Positive %
71.4%
Consistency
Momentum Rankings

How does this ticker's recent performance compare to the entire universe? Ranked across 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns.

1M Return
+0.7%
3M Return
+4.7%
6M Return
+28.6%
12M Return
+45.1%
Momentum Rank
#1316
Momentum Signal
UP

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