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The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
Birkenstock Holding plc
BIRK · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $5.1B · 6,800 employees
Birkenstock Holding plc engages in the manufacture and sale of footwear products in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Birkenstock Holding plc holds its Markdown at $30.69. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 89 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 89 days
Price at the screen
$30.69
Valuation
14.41 trailing · 10.95 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.28
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
21.59%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 21.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
3.67%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades at roughly a 84% discount to our $56.45 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 13.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 83.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 20 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +67% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Birkenstock sells sandals the world keeps buying
Every time someone steps into a pair of Birkenstocks on a city street or beach, the company collects a steady cut from a product that rarely goes out of fashion. This is a straightforward footwear business with an 8% revenue growth rate, 16% profit margins and a 13% return on equity, all backed by a moderate moat that keeps copycats at bay. It trades at 16 times forward earnings against a fair value some 25% higher, which is why the opportunity stands out on plain numbers.
Analysts see the same picture, with a strong buy consensus and a $50 median target that still leaves room above the current $44.36 price. The ethical screen clears without issues, and the brand travels well across the Americas, Europe and Asia Pacific without needing constant reinvention.
Consumer spending can still swing with fashion cycles and economic dips, so the moderate moat offers less protection than it might appear and any slowdown in discretionary purchases would hit growth quickly. Currency moves and rising competition in casual footwear add further pressure that the current multiple already prices in.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to United Kingdom and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BIRK trades on the NYSE (the company is based in United Kingdom). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 16.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-07-23Markup$44.36-9.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 9.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-07-18Markup$48.75+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (20 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-07-03Markup$48.75+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$48.75Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.