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The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
NKENike, Inc.
NKE · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $55.2B · 77,800 employees
NIKE, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and sells athletic and casual footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories, and services for men, women, and kids in North America, Europe, the Middle…
Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-25
Options put/call open interest 0.58, read 2026-10-28
Ethical passes the values gate
Price37.15 USD
Fair value24.46
Ethical score77.9/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Accumulation37.14+0.0% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation first Accumulation read since July
2026-10-18Read Markup37.14+0.0% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-09-24Read Markdown36.10+2.9% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 10% slide in 3 weeks
2026-09-06Read Distribution40.21-7.6% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 5% slide in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Nike, Inc. holds its Markup at $37.15. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 60 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-28
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 60 days
Price at the screen
$37.15
Valuation
17.86 trailing · 22.42 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 77.9
Beta
1.10
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
30.12%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 30.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
4.61%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
33.30%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 33.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.23%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Nike, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 30%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today NKE passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades above our $24.46 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 34.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 36 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −8% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Nike growth stall leaves valuation stretched
Picture shelves stacked with unsold trainers while shoppers tighten their belts. Nike sits in that spot right now, with sales slipping one percent and a forward multiple of 18.8 times earnings that offers little cushion.
We pass because the shares trade five percent above our fair value and the business shows only a weak moat. Profit margins at seven percent and return on equity of 22 percent look respectable on paper, yet they fail to compensate for the lack of growth in a cyclical consumer market.
Analysts still cluster around a buy rating with targets near 47 dollars, but that optimism often ignores how peak earnings in footwear can quickly reverse. The ethical screen clears, yet the price and outlook do not.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NKE trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-18Markup · changed$37.14+3.9%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-11Markdown$35.75+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-02Markdown$35.75-1.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-09-24Markdown · changed$36.10-10.2%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 10.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-08-06Markup · changed$42.45-1.2%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-07-18Accumulation$42.98+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (33 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-07-03Accumulation$42.98+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$42.98Entry 1
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.