Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.45, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price152.93 USD
Fair value190.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Markup159.84-4.3% to today Markdown gives way to Markup after a 32% rise in 2 weeks
2026-10-21Read Markdown121.37+26.0% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown
2026-10-02Read Accumulation119.24+28.3% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation after an 11% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-25Read Distribution134.18+14.0% to today Markup gives way to Distribution after an 8% rise in 8 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Crocs, Inc. holds its Markup at $152.93. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$152.93
Valuation
12.11 trailing · 9.98 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.50
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
38.66%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 38.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
9.79%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 9.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.05%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Crocs,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 39% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when CROX's ethical verdict changes
Today CROX does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 16% discount to our $190.00 fair value, 4.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 19.5% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $190.00, with a range of $190.00 to $319.68, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Crocs loses its grip as sales shrink
Picture the plastic clog that once ruled festivals and school runs. Crocs now reports revenue sliding 2 percent, profit margins at minus 3 percent and return on equity at minus 6 percent. The forward multiple sits at 9.4 times yet the shares trade above our fair value with a negative margin of safety, so the low earnings multiple signals trouble rather than value.
We pass because the numbers point to a cyclical business hitting a weak patch with no visible moat and an opportunity rating of none. Twelve analysts see a median target near the current price, which leaves little room for error when consumer spending on casual footwear can turn quickly.
The real risk sits in fashion cycles and brand fatigue that can turn a low multiple into a value trap at peak earnings. Currency moves and shifting retail trends add further pressure on margins that are already negative. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CROX trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Markup · changed$159.84+34.1%Entry 17
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 34.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $113. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. Since the last review it its composite score eased; its composite score rose.
2026-10-29Markdown$119.23-1.8%Entry 16
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $113. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markdown$121.37+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $113. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markdown$121.37+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $113. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markdown$121.37+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $113. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$121.37+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 23% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $113. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown$121.37+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 23% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $113. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$121.37+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 23% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $113. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$121.37+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 23% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $113. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown · changed$121.37+5.6%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 5.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 23% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (12 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $113. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.