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The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
DECKDeckers Brands
DECK · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $10.9B · 5,500 employees
Deckers Outdoor Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, markets, and distributes footwear, apparel, and accessories for casual lifestyle use and high-performance activities in the United States and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
87.74 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 18:01 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price87.74 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026
Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-25
Options put/call open interest 1.32, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price87.74 USD
Fair value104.07
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Accumulation78.36+12.0% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown78.36+12.0% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 28% slide in 13 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution108.13-18.9% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Deckers Brands holds its Accumulation at $87.74. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 136 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 136 days
Price at the screen
$87.74
Valuation
10.86 trailing · 10.02 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.12
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Accounts receivable
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
7.76%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 7.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
62.24%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 62.2% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
1.37%
Below 5%
Only 1.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Deckers Brands's business is fine, but its receivables are about 62% of its assets, well over the ~49% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 14% discount to our $104.07 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 3.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 15.7% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $104.07, with a range of $84.85 to $141.42, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it stands out
A 4%-growth business trading at just 10.0x forward earnings, with a moderate competitive moat and minimal debt. That is a 14% discount to our $104.07 fair value: the market is pricing it cautiously while the fundamentals argue otherwise. 21 analysts rate it Hold with a $95.00 average target, about 8% above the screened price.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
DECK trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Accumulation$89.11+9.9%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 9.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $97.
2026-10-29Accumulation$81.09-5.4%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $97.
2026-10-22Accumulation$85.71+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $115. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Accumulation$85.71+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $117. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Accumulation$85.71+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $118. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19Accumulation$85.71+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $118. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Accumulation$85.71+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $118. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17Accumulation$85.71-1.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $118. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Accumulation$86.58+4.5%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $118. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15Accumulation$82.89+5.8%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $120. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.