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The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
Deckers Brands
DECK · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $10.9B · 5,500 employees
Deckers Outdoor Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, markets, and distributes footwear, apparel, and accessories for casual lifestyle use and high-performance activities in the United States and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
80.23 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 17:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Deckers Brands holds its Markdown at $80.23. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 97 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 97 days
Price at the screen
$80.23
Valuation
11.41 trailing · 9.64 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.15
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Accounts receivable
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
7.76%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 7.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
62.24%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 62.2% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
1.37%
Below 5%
Only 1.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 83% discount to our $147.01 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 5.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 83.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 21 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +50% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Premium boots hiding a wobbly ledger
Picture the Ugg boot that sits in every wardrobe yet rests on receivables that tripped the ethical screen. We pass on Deckers for that reason alone, before the numbers even enter the room.
The business posts solid 10% revenue growth, 19% profit margins and a 41% ROE, with a forward P/E of 12.8x that looks cheap next to a 43% gap to our fair value. Moderate moat and a buy-rated analyst crowd at $130 add to the surface appeal.
Yet footwear demand moves with cycles, so the low multiple may simply mark peak earnings rather than a bargain. The accounts-receivable flag blocks any further look. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
DECK trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-26Distribution$91.68-13.9%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 13.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $123.
2026-07-26Distribution$106.49-1.5%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $127.
2026-07-18Distribution$108.13+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $127.
2026-07-03Distribution$108.13+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$108.13Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.