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The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
On Holding AG
ONON · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $11.4B · 3,963 employees
On Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops and distributes performance sports products under the On brand in Switzerland, the rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United States, the rest of the Ameri…
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.36, read 2026-10-23
Ethical passes the values gate
Price35.19 USD
Fair value43.50
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Accumulation27.32+28.8% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation after a 28% slide in 8 weeks
2026-08-07Read Distribution37.89-7.1% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution with volume flow in agreement
2026-07-02Read Markup38.58-8.8% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
On Holding AG holds its Accumulation at $35.19. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 27 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-15
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 27 days
Price at the screen
$35.19
Valuation
22.69 trailing · 16.59 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
2.08
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
18.39%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 18.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
2.09%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
46.71%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 46.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.03%
Below 5%
Only 1.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
On clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 18%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 1% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-24. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today ONON passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 23.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 30 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +19% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Shoes built for speed but not distinction
Picture lacing up trainers that promise performance yet blend into a crowded field of established rivals. On Holding sells athletic footwear across Europe, the Americas and Asia, yet its narrow moat leaves the business exposed to bigger brands with deeper pockets and stronger loyalty.
Revenue is rising 14 percent and the firm clears an 8 percent profit margin with 16 percent ROE. The shares trade at 17.3 times forward earnings against a fair value that implies 31 percent upside, while analysts cluster around a 50 dollar target. It clears the ethical screen, but none of that moves the needle into an opportunity.
Consumer cyclical demand can swing sharply when spending tightens, and a narrow moat offers little defence if fashion shifts or competition intensifies. The setup looks steady rather than compelling.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Switzerland and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ONON trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Switzerland). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-21Accumulation$35.19+0.3%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-10-14Accumulation$35.09+28.4%Entry 7
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 28.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-09-08Distribution$27.80-26.6%Entry 5
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 26.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-07-18Markup$38.58+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (26 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-07-03Markup$38.58+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$38.58Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
