Screened 2026-09-15 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Steven Madden, Ltd. holds its Markdown at $40.46. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 52 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-15
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 52 days
Price at the screen
$40.46
Valuation
20.23 trailing · 14.57 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.16
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
25.40%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 25.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.67%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-15 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 43.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +36% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-15 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Fashion Shoes Show Growth But Weak Returns
Picture a shopper grabbing the latest trendy sneakers only to see them discounted six months later. Steven Madden delivers solid top-line expansion at 18 percent revenue growth and passes our ethical screen, yet its 3 percent profit margin and 9 percent ROE leave little room for error in a business that lives or dies on shifting tastes.
We pass because the opportunity rating is none. Forward earnings sit at 16.1 times while the stock trades below both our fair value and the analyst median target, but low returns on equity in a cyclical category signal that growth may not translate into durable owner earnings.
Fashion cycles turn quickly and consumer spending on accessories can stall without warning. The modest margin structure offers scant protection if input costs rise or demand softens, leaving the apparent discount vulnerable to a classic cyclical trap rather than a genuine bargain.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SHOO trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-12Markdown · changed$45.11-7.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $45.
2026-08-12Markup$48.58+5.3%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $45.
2026-07-18Markup$46.15+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 74%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (9 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $45.
2026-07-03Markup$46.15+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$46.15Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
