Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.94, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price8.82 USD
Fair value11.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-02Read Markup8.65+2.0% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 13% slide in 4 weeks
2026-10-02Read Distribution9.97-11.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution with results news in the headlines
2026-09-21Read Markdown9.91-11.0% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 10% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-21Read Markup10.96-19.5% to today Markdown gives way to Markup after a 6% rise in 7 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
AGNC Investment Corp holds its Distribution at $8.82. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 57 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 57 days
Price at the screen
$8.82
Valuation
441.00 trailing · 6.11 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.38
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity: conventional financial services
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Its core business involves an activity the values screen does not clear.
Fail
Debt load
0.05%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
6.43%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.52%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
100.00%
Below 5%
100.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
AGNC Investment does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when AGNC's ethical verdict changes
Today AGNC does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 20% discount to our $11.00 fair value, narrow competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 19.8% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $11.00, with a range of $11.00 to $17.64, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Government Backed Mortgages Still Carry Real Risks
Picture a fund that hands private capital to US housing by buying mortgage securities the government stands behind. AGNC does exactly that yet our fair value sits only seven percent above the current price, leaving almost no margin once the narrow moat is considered.
Forward earnings sit at seven and a half times with a ninety two percent profit margin and thirteen percent return on equity, but eight analysts call it a hold and place their median target at twelve dollars, matching our own reading. Opportunity rating stays none.
Rate moves and housing cycles can crush spreads without warning, and the narrow moat offers scant defence when funding costs rise. Ethical screen passes yet nothing here signals a compelling case. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AGNC trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-02Markup · changed$8.65-2.7%Entry 19
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $11. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-26Distribution$8.89+0.8%Entry 18
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $11. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
2026-10-19Distribution$8.82+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $11. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Distribution$8.82+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $11. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17Distribution$8.82+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $11. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Distribution$8.82+1.7%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $11. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15Distribution$8.67+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $11. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14Distribution$8.67+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $11. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-13Distribution$8.67+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $11. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-12Distribution$8.67+2.5%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $11. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
