NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,118+6.17%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 13:00 UTC
The Screen · Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.
BXMT · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.4B
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc., a real estate finance company, originates, acquires, and manages loans and other debt or credit-oriented investments collateralized by or relating to commercial real estate.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
14.20 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-04
Screened 2026-09-04 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. holds its Markdown at $14.20. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-04
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$14.20
Valuation
177.50 trailing · 9.16 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.94
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: mortgage
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: mortgage
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 50.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +27% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Mortgage REIT Trips on Its Own Ethical Line
Picture a lender handing out floating rate loans against office towers and hotels, only to watch the money cross an ethical red line before it even reaches the borrower. Blackstone Mortgage Trust fails our screen outright because the mortgage sector itself sits on the prohibited list. That single filter ends any further look, regardless of the 35% revenue growth or the 8.8 times forward earnings.
The shares trade at a 35% discount to our calculated fair value and carry a buy rating from eight analysts, yet the opportunity rating sits at none. A 22% profit margin next to a 3% return on equity already signals thin returns on capital, and the mortgage business model adds layers of interest rate and property cycle exposure that the ethical block makes irrelevant anyway.
We stay away because the screen exists to keep us out of entire corners of finance, not to weigh them later. The low multiple and analyst targets do not change that starting point. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BXMT trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-24Distribution$14.18-17.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 17.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-24Distribution$17.08-7.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-18Distribution$18.36+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-03Distribution$18.36+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$18.36Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
