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The Screen · Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Dynex Capital, Inc.
DX · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $2.7B · 28 employees
Dynex Capital, Inc., a mortgage real estate investment trust, invests in residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
10.75 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 14:04 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price10.75 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 4.70, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price10.75 USD
Fair value14.50
Ethical score30.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Distribution11.34-5.2% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Distribution after a 14% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-27Read Accumulation13.18-18.4% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation
2026-07-02Read Distribution12.93-16.9% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Dynex Capital, Inc. holds its Distribution at $10.75. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 17 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 17 days
Price at the screen
$10.75
Valuation
39.00 trailing · 6.72 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.97
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: mortgage
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: mortgage
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Dynex Capital, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in an area the screen excludes: mortgage, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today DX does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 25% discount to our $14.50 fair value.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 25.9% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $14.50, with a range of $14.50 to $21.82, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Mortgage REITs Trade Cheap But Ethics Block Entry
Every time a household pays its mortgage the cash flows into agency backed securities that Dynex packages for investors. On paper the numbers look tidy with an 8.5 times forward earnings multiple, an 80 percent profit margin and a 12 percent return on equity, plus a slim 8 percent gap between the 13.33 share price and our 14.41 fair value.
We pass because the mortgage sector trips our ethical screen outright. The buy rated analyst targets around 15 dollars and the unknown moat do not move the dial once that hard line is crossed.
Risk sits in rate swings that can slash book value overnight plus the sector exposure itself. This is exactly what the screen is for.
Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
DX trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-02Distribution$10.65-1.8%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $15. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
2026-10-26Distribution$10.85+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $15. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-19Distribution$10.85+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $15. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Distribution$10.85+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $15. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17Distribution$10.85+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $15. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Distribution$10.85+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $15. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15Distribution$10.85+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $15. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14Distribution$10.85-0.1%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $15. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-13Distribution$10.86+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $15. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-12Distribution$10.86-4.2%Entry 7
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (5 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $15. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
