Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.47, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price12.58 USD
Fair value18.00
Ethical score30.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Distribution14.11-10.8% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution first Distribution read since July
2026-09-24Read Markdown14.77-14.8% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 10% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-22Read Accumulation16.48-23.7% to today Distribution gives way to Accumulation
2026-07-02Read Distribution17.10-26.4% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. holds its Distribution at $12.58. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 9 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 9 days
Price at the screen
$12.58
Valuation
253.00 trailing · 4.42 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.40
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: mortgage
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: mortgage
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
ARMOUR Residential REIT, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in an area the screen excludes: mortgage, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 30% discount to our $18.00 fair value.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 30.1% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $18.00, with a range of $18.00 to $25.20, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Mortgage REITs Look Cheap But Ethics Block Us
Picture a homeowner in Florida whose monthly payment gets sliced up and sold as a bond. ARMOUR Residential REIT sits in the middle of that chain, buying government-backed mortgage securities for an 88% profit margin and 20% return on equity. The numbers look attractive on a 5.6 times forward earnings multiple with a 16% gap to stated fair value, yet we pass outright because the business sits in a sector our ethical screen rejects on principle.
The low multiple and analyst buy ratings reflect a classic mortgage REIT profile that can deliver high yields when rates cooperate. However, these vehicles are inherently cyclical, exposed to interest-rate swings and housing-market turns that can turn peak earnings into sharp reversals without warning.
Risk sits in the ethical failure plus leverage and prepayment volatility that can erode book value quickly. The opportunity rating stays at none for these reasons. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ARR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Distribution$12.13-4.1%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $18. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-28Distribution$12.65-7.4%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $18. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
2026-10-21Distribution$13.66+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $18. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Distribution$13.66+0.5%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $18. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-13Distribution$13.59-3.7%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $18. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $18. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-09-24Markdown · changed$14.77-10.4%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 10.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $18. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-21Distribution$16.61-2.9%Entry 5
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-18Distribution$17.10+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $18.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
