An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Starwood Property Trust, Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $15.98
Starwood Property Trust, Inc. holds its Distribution at $15.98.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-31
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 217 days
Price
$15.98
Valuation
16.82 trailing · 8.37 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.03
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$15.98
16.82 P/E · 8.37 fwd
Our fair value
$24.00
50% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$20.00
+25% to current
Target low $18.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $24.00
▲ current $15.98 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$15.98
you are here
Conservative
$22.90
+43%
Analyst avg
$20.00
+25%
Our fair value
$24.00
+50%
Analyst high
$24.00
+50%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
21.80%
Profit margin
60.46%
Debt to equity
315.95
Analyst consensus
Buy · 8 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its prohibited keyword in sector/industry: mortgage. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityProhibited keyword in sector/industry: mortgageFail
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Mortgage REITs trip over their own rules
Picture a lender doling out cash for office towers and homes across borders, only for the gatekeeper to wave the whole trade away on day one. Starwood Property Trust shows solid revenue growth at 22 percent and a fat 60 percent profit margin, yet the ethical screen blocks it outright because mortgage lending sits on the prohibited list. That single fail overrides the 8.9 times forward earnings and the gap between the $17 share price and our $24 fair value.
We pass for the same reason the screen exists. The business clears none of the basic ethical hurdles that keep us out of certain sectors, regardless of how cheap the numbers appear or what the eight analysts say with their $20 median target. Low 5 percent ROE and an unknown moat only reinforce the decision to stay away.
Real estate cycles can flatten earnings fast, and mortgage exposure adds layers of interest-rate and credit risk that cheap multiples often mask. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
STWD trades on the NYSE. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20. Entered 2026-07-18 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Distribution$17.00+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $20.
2026-07-03Distribution$17.00+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$17.00Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$17.23
-1.0%
·
$990
-1.0%
2 months
$17.68
-3.5%
·
$965
-3.5%
3 months
$17.16
-0.6%
$0.48
$1,022
+2.2%
6 months
$17.51
-2.6%
$0.96
$1,029
+2.9%
1 year
$18.41
-7.3%
$1.92
$1,031
+3.1%
2 years
$15.53
+9.8%
$3.84
$1,346
+34.6%
3 years
$14.10
+21.0%
$5.76
$1,619
+61.9%
5 years
$16.68
+2.3%
$9.60
$1,598
+59.8%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever STWD does next, these words stay.
Starwood Property Trust, Inc. · STWD · Distribution · $15.98
Recorded 2026-07-31 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
