Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.43, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price18.85 USD
Fair value25.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Distribution18.27+3.2% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 14% slide in 9 days
2026-10-02Read Markdown21.31-11.5% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 6% slide in 4 weeks
2026-09-06Read Accumulation22.71-17.0% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-07-02Read Markdown22.00-14.3% to today ✓First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Annaly Capital Management Inc holds its Distribution at $18.85. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 23 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 23 days
Price at the screen
$18.85
Valuation
12.48 trailing · 5.90 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.28
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity: conventional financial services
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Its core business involves an activity the values screen does not clear.
Fail
Debt load
23.54%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 23.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
6.25%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.94%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
100.00%
Below 5%
100.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Annaly Capital Management does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when NLY's ethical verdict changes
Today NLY does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 24% discount to our $25.00 fair value, narrow competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 24.6% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $25.00, with a range of $25.00 to $37.86, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Mortgage spreads swing and Annaly rides them
Mortgage rates move like tides and Annaly Capital makes its living from the spread between what it borrows and what its agency securities yield. Revenue grew 49 percent while the firm posted an 87 percent profit margin and 15 percent return on equity at a forward multiple of just 7.7 times. A narrow moat and ethical pass leave the numbers looking solid on the surface.
Yet the business is deeply cyclical and tied to interest rate moves that can crush spreads overnight. Low multiples on mortgage REITs often mark peak earnings rather than bargains, and the opportunity rating sits at none despite the 13 percent gap to our fair value. Analyst targets cluster around 25 with a buy consensus that ignores how quickly conditions reverse.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NLY trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Distribution$18.23-0.7%Entry 17
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-10-27Distribution$18.35+1.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24. Since the last review it its composite score eased.
2026-10-20Distribution$18.16+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19Distribution$18.16+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Distribution$18.16+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17Distribution$18.16+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Distribution$18.16-0.8%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15Distribution$18.30+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14Distribution$18.30+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-13Distribution$18.30+0.2%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
