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The Screen · Real Estate · REIT - Mortgage
Annaly Capital Management Inc
NLY · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $15.9B · 212 employees
Annaly Capital Management, Inc., a diversified capital manager, engages in the residential mortgage finance business.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
21.05 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-18
Screened 2026-09-18 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Annaly Capital Management Inc holds its Markdown at $21.05. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 268 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 268 days
Price at the screen
$21.05
Valuation
5.08 trailing · 6.77 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.24
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity: conventional financial services
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Its core business involves an activity the values screen does not clear.
Fail
Debt load
23.54%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 23.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
6.25%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.94%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
265.51%
Below 5%
265.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 18.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +14% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Mortgage spreads swing and Annaly rides them
Mortgage rates move like tides and Annaly Capital makes its living from the spread between what it borrows and what its agency securities yield. Revenue grew 49 percent while the firm posted an 87 percent profit margin and 15 percent return on equity at a forward multiple of just 7.7 times. A narrow moat and ethical pass leave the numbers looking solid on the surface.
Yet the business is deeply cyclical and tied to interest rate moves that can crush spreads overnight. Low multiples on mortgage REITs often mark peak earnings rather than bargains, and the opportunity rating sits at none despite the 13 percent gap to our fair value. Analyst targets cluster around 25 with a buy consensus that ignores how quickly conditions reverse.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NLY trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-08-06Markdown$23.20+5.5%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 5.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-07-18Markdown$22.00+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $24.
2026-07-03Markdown$22.00+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$22.00Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
