Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.85, read 2026-11-03
Ethical passes the values gate
Price634.89 USD
Fair value636.50
Ethical score85.2/100
Value readFairas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-04Read Markup634.89+0.0% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 16% rise in 5 weeks
2026-10-02Read Accumulation549.13+15.6% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation while volume is distributing
2026-08-15Read Markup539.47+17.7% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 16% rise in 6 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution467.07+35.9% to today First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Ulta Beauty holds its Markup at $634.89. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 27 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 27 days
Price at the screen
$634.89
Valuation
23.34 trailing · 19.95 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 85.2
Beta
0.84
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
31.18%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 31.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
1.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.29%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.13%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Ulta Beauty clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 31%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when ULTA's ethical verdict changes
Today ULTA passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 0% discount to our $636.50 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 8.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 0.3% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $636.50, with a range of $478.50 to $797.50, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Beauty shelves draw crowds but price does not
Step into any Ulta store on a Saturday and the queues at the till show how steady demand for lipstick and skincare can be. The business delivers 11% revenue growth, a 9% profit margin and a striking 47% return on equity, all while clearing our ethical screen. Yet the shares trade at a level that leaves almost no margin of safety against our fair value.
We pass for one straightforward reason. The forward multiple of 15.1 times already prices in continued strength in a consumer cyclical business with only a narrow moat. Analyst targets sit around 633 dollars while the stock sits at 479 dollars, but our work shows the current quote still leaves the valuation stretched once normal cycles are allowed for.
The obvious risk is that any slowdown in discretionary spending quickly hits both sales and margins, and a high return on equity offers little protection when peak earnings start to fade. Cyclical retailers have a habit of looking cheap right before earnings normalise lower.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ULTA trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Markup · changed$634.89+7.1%Entry 17
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $682.
2026-10-28Accumulation$592.94+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $682.
2026-10-21Accumulation$592.94+4.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $682.
2026-10-14Accumulation$570.37+3.9%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $682.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $682.
2026-08-27Markup$521.46+0.0%Entry 12
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $682. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-26Markup$521.46+0.0%Entry 11
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $682. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25Markup$521.46+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $682. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Markup$521.46+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $682. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23Markup$521.46+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $682. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
