Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.54, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price236.19 USD
Fair value271.66
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Accumulation223.24+5.8% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown234.14+0.9% to today Markup gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
2026-08-29Read Markup241.71-2.3% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup
2026-08-26Read Accumulation241.71-2.3% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 22% rise in 8 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Five Below Inc holds its Accumulation at $236.19. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 76 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 76 days
Price at the screen
$236.19
Valuation
20.00 trailing · 20.18 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.94
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
41.16%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 41.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
4.22%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.76%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.48%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Five Below's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 41% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 12% discount to our $271.66 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 22.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 13.1% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $271.66, with a range of $203.40 to $312.41, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Bargain bins for teens face crowded aisles
Picture a teenager grabbing candy and socks on a budget in a fluorescent Five Below store. The chain keeps posting 32% revenue growth with 9% profit margins and 21% ROE, all while clearing an ethical screen and earning a narrow moat rating from analysts who set targets around 260.
Yet the opportunity rating sits at none. Forward earnings sit at 20.8 times and the shares already trade below our own fair value of 237, yet we still see no edge worth taking. The numbers look solid on paper but fail to clear the bar for a real edge.
Retail demand tied to discretionary spending can shift fast when household budgets tighten. A narrow moat leaves room for copycats and online rivals to chip away at the same price-sensitive crowd.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FIVE trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Accumulation$236.19+5.8%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $261. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 3% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $261. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-21Markdown$213.35-0.6%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $261. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-14Markdown$214.73-8.3%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 8.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $261. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$234.14-4.5%Entry 13
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $261. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
2026-09-02Markup$245.08+1.4%Entry 12
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $261. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-01Markup$241.71+0.0%Entry 11
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $261. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-31Markup$241.71+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $261. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-30Markup$241.71+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $261. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-29Markup · changed$241.71+0.0%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 32%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $261. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
