Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Ulta Beauty holds its Markup at $541.86. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 49 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 49 days
Price at the screen
$541.86
Valuation
19.73 trailing · 16.91 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 85.2
Beta
0.85
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
31.18%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 31.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
1.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.29%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OVERVALUED: it trades at roughly a 17% discount to our $632.65 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 8.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 16.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 25 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +17% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Beauty shelves draw crowds but price does not
Step into any Ulta store on a Saturday and the queues at the till show how steady demand for lipstick and skincare can be. The business delivers 11% revenue growth, a 9% profit margin and a striking 47% return on equity, all while clearing our ethical screen. Yet the shares trade at a level that leaves almost no margin of safety against our fair value.
We pass for one straightforward reason. The forward multiple of 15.1 times already prices in continued strength in a consumer cyclical business with only a narrow moat. Analyst targets sit around 633 dollars while the stock sits at 479 dollars, but our work shows the current quote still leaves the valuation stretched once normal cycles are allowed for.
The obvious risk is that any slowdown in discretionary spending quickly hits both sales and margins, and a high return on equity offers little protection when peak earnings start to fade. Cyclical retailers have a habit of looking cheap right before earnings normalise lower.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ULTA trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-27Markup$521.46+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $682. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-26Markup$521.46+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $682. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25Markup$521.46+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $682. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Markup$521.46+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $682. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23Markup$521.46+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $682. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-22Markup$521.46-3.3%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 3.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $682. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-21Markup$539.47+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $682. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-20Markup$539.47+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $682. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-15Markup · changed$539.47+15.5%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 15.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $682.
2026-07-18Distribution$467.07+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $682.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
