An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Ulta Beauty, Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $479.57
Ulta Beauty holds its Distribution at $479.57.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 49 days
Price
$479.57
Valuation
17.99 trailing · 15.05 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 85.2
Beta
0.88
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads OVERVALUED — it trades at roughly a 38% discount to our $661.54 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 11.10% revenue growth.
Read at
$479.57
17.99 P/E · 15.05 fwd
Our fair value
$661.54
38% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$633.00
+32% to current
Target low $450.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $735.00
▲ current $479.57 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$479.57
you are here
Conservative
$517.56
+8%
Analyst avg
$633.00
+32%
Our fair value
$661.54
+38%
Analyst high
$735.00
+53%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
11.10%
Profit margin
9.36%
Debt to equity
89.21
Analyst consensus
Buy · 24 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 31.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 10.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Beauty shelves draw crowds but price does not
Step into any Ulta store on a Saturday and the queues at the till show how steady demand for lipstick and skincare can be. The business delivers 11% revenue growth, a 9% profit margin and a striking 47% return on equity, all while clearing our ethical screen. Yet the shares trade at a level that leaves almost no margin of safety against our fair value.
We pass for one straightforward reason. The forward multiple of 15.1 times already prices in continued strength in a consumer cyclical business with only a narrow moat. Analyst targets sit around 633 dollars while the stock sits at 479 dollars, but our work shows the current quote still leaves the valuation stretched once normal cycles are allowed for.
The obvious risk is that any slowdown in discretionary spending quickly hits both sales and margins, and a high return on equity offers little protection when peak earnings start to fade. Cyclical retailers have a habit of looking cheap right before earnings normalise lower.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
ULTA trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $682. Entered 2026-07-18 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Distribution$467.07+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (24 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $682.
2026-07-03Distribution$467.07+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$467.07Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
