ULTA
Ulta Beauty
Consumer Discretionary · Other Specialty Retail · US
$496.00
Close 2026-05-15
✓ ETHICAL PASS

NARROW MOAT
HIGH
Data Confidence: 100%
Full financial profile available
Market Cap
$21.7B
Trailing P/E
19.33
Forward P/E
15.67
Rev Growth
+11.8%
Profit Margin
9.3%
ROE
43.6%
Analyst Target
$681.50
Recommendation
BUY
About Ulta Beauty

Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a specialty beauty retailer in the United States, Mexico, and Kuwait. The company offers branded and private label beauty products, including cosmetics, fragrance, haircare, skincare, bath and body products, professional hair products, and salon styling tools through its Ulta Beauty stores, shop-in-shops, Ulta.com website, and its mobile applications. It also provides wellness products. The company was formerly known as ULTA Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. and changed its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Ulta Beauty, Inc. was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Bolingbrook, Illinois.

Opportunity Summary
Trading at $496, 31% above fair value of $380. Passes all ethical screens. Ranks better than 58% of screened stocks.
Ethical Screen
Business ActivityPASS
Debt Ratio (0.31%)PASS
Cash Ratio (0.01%)PASS
Receivables Ratio (0.10%)PASS
Revenue Ratio (0.00%)PASS
OverallPASS
Score Ethical: 85.2
Score Valuation: 55.0
Score Quality: 74.2
Score Combined: 59.9
Fair Value Est: $379.87 · Margin of Safety: -30.6% · Tier: OVERVALUED

Full Analysis

Opportunity scores, earnings history, insider transactions, institutional holders, analyst consensus, and more.

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Opportunity Scores
Valuation100.0
Quality77.3
Cash Flow48.8
Moat70.0
Balance Sheet74.9
Debt Purity5.5
Liquid Purity97.0
Rev Purity100.0
Compliance60.2
Tier: BRONZE · Score: 49.4 · Rank: #1994
Earnings History (Last 8 Quarters)
DateEPS Est.Reported EPSSurprise %
2026-06-025.80Pending--
2026-03-128.048.01-0.4%
2025-12-044.605.14+11.7%
2025-08-285.045.78+14.7%
2025-05-295.806.70+15.5%
2025-03-137.158.46+18.4%
2024-12-054.525.14+13.6%
2024-08-295.475.30-3.0%
Quarterly Financials
PeriodRevenueNet IncomeEBITDAGross ProfitOp. IncomeEPS
2026-01-31$3.9B$356.7M$562.3M$1.5B$480.5M8.05
2025-10-31$2.9B$230.9M$385.2M$1.2B$314.7M5.16
2025-07-31$2.8B$260.9M$421.1M$1.1B$350.0M5.80
2025-04-30$2.8B$305.1M$475.6M$1.1B$403.6M6.72
2025-01-31$3.5B$393.3M$588.0M$1.3B$518.1M8.50
2024-10-31
Insider Transactions
DateNameRoleSharesValue
2026-04-07MRKONIC GEORGE R JRDirector452$243.8K
2026-03-31CASARES RENE GABRIELOfficer1,263--
2026-03-31STEELMAN KECIAChief Executive Officer10,889--
2026-03-31DELOREFICE CHRISTOPHERChief Financial Officer4,219--
2026-03-31RYAN ANITA JANEOfficer1,443--
2026-03-31LIALIOS CHRISTOPHEROfficer519--
2026-02-12STEELMAN KECIAChief Executive Officer3,416--
2026-02-12RYAN ANITA JANEOfficer644--
2025-12-15HALLIGAN CATHERINE ANNDirector340--
2025-12-09DELOREFICE CHRISTOPHERChief Financial Officer5,474--
Top Institutional Holders
HolderSharesValue% Held
Blackrock Inc.4.1M$2.1B0.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC2.9M$1.5B0.1%
State Street Corporation2.0M$1.0B0.0%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC2.0M$1.0B0.0%
Sanders Capital, LLC1.9M$982.8M0.0%
Geode Capital Management, LLC1.3M$655.5M0.0%
Morgan Stanley1.1M$576.9M0.0%
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO1.1M$569.0M0.0%
Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc983.7K$506.6M0.0%
T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.970.4K$499.8M0.0%
Analyst Recommendations
3 Months Ago
4
14
8
27 analysts
2 Months Ago
4
13
10
28 analysts
Last Month
4
13
10
2
29 analysts
Current
4
15
7
27 analysts
Strong Buy Buy Hold Sell Strong Sell
Additional Fundamentals
Enterprise Value
$24.2B
Price/Book
8.11
Beta
0.891
Analysts
24
Total Revenue (TTM)
$12.4B
Total Debt
$2.2B
Earnings Growth
-5.4%
Rec. Mean
1.81
Short Ratio
3.26
Short % Float
0.0%
Employees
21,382

Elite Intelligence

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Trade Consideration
The Opportunity
Score 59.9 (P95 — top 5.2% of scored tickers). Narrow Moat. Ethical PASS. 24 analysts at Buy.
Price: $496.00 | Target: $681.50 (+37%) | Fair Value: $379.87 (+-23%)
Score
60
Moat
NARROW
Conviction
Standard
Upside
+37%
The Fundamentals
Revenue Growth+11.8%
Profit Margin9.3%
ROE43.6%
Forward P/E15.7
Market Cap$21.7B
Earnings Track Record
DateEstimateReportedSurprise
2026-06-02$5.80Pending
2026-03-12$8.04$8.01-0.4%
2025-12-04$4.60$5.14+11.7%
2025-08-28$5.04$5.78+14.7%
2025-05-29$5.80$6.70+15.5%
2025-03-13$7.15$8.46+18.4%
Position Sizing Scenarios
Stop: $421.60 (-15%) | Entry: $496.00
SharesCostProfit to TargetR:R
To Consensus ($681.50, 24 analysts)
10$4,960.00+$1,855.00 (37%)2.5R
50$24,800.00+$9,275.00 (37%)2.5R
100$49,600.00+$18,550.00 (37%)2.5R
To Fair Value ($379.87)
10$4,960.00+$-1,161.30 (-23%)-1.6R
50$24,800.00+$-5,806.50 (-23%)-1.6R
100$49,600.00+$-11,613.00 (-23%)-1.6R
Risk Factors
  • Elevated short interest (3.26 days to cover)
The Verdict
Ulta Beauty passes all ethical screens and holds a narrow competitive moat.
Quantitative Grade

A single score combining all analytical layers below. A is strongest, D is weakest.

C
Quant Score
40.9
Risk Grade
LOW_RISK
Layers
8
Quality: STRONG_EARNINGS_DRIFT
Risk Profile

How much could this ticker lose on a bad day? These metrics measure worst-case scenarios from historical data.

VaR 95%
-3.4%
worst expected daily loss, 19 in 20 days
CVaR 95%
-4.8%
avg loss on the worst 5% of days
Annual Volatility
Sortino Ratio
0.63
above 1.0 is good
Max Drawdown
-32.1%
Worst Day
Forward Outlook

Based on 10,000 simulated price paths, here is the probability of where this ticker could be in 30, 60, and 90 days.

30d Prob Up
90d Prob Up
Median Return 30d
Liquidity Score
90
Liquidity Grade
HIGHLY LIQUID
Trend & Momentum

What direction is this ticker actually moving, filtered through noise? Is it speeding up or slowing down?

Kalman Trend
Trend Strength
Momentum Signal
HMM Regime
RSI Signal
Technical Signals

Classic chart signals that institutional traders monitor. Golden Cross is bullish, Death Cross is bearish.

MA Crossover
DEATH_CROSS
Bollinger Position
UPPER_HALF
Beta
Relative Volume
1.7x
Short Interest
Financial Health

Is this company financially sound? The Z-Score measures bankruptcy risk. The F-Score measures fundamental strength.

Altman Z-Score
below 1.81 = distress zone
Piotroski F-Score
Earnings Beat Rate
75.0%
Earnings Consistency
Correlations

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Inverse Correlated
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Seasonality

Does this ticker have consistent patterns on certain days or months? Historical tendencies, not guarantees.

Best Day
Friday
Worst Day
Monday
Best Month
Dec
Worst Month
Mar
Fri-Mon Effect
0.39669372042889284
Earnings Drift

After this company beats earnings, does the price keep going up? Drift tracks post-earnings momentum.

Avg Drift After Beat
+8.9%
Beat Drift Positive %
100.0%
Consistency
Momentum Rankings

How does this ticker's recent performance compare to the entire universe? Ranked across 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns.

1M Return
-7.6%
3M Return
-24.8%
6M Return
+4.0%
12M Return
+25.7%
Momentum Rank
#3532
Momentum Signal
DOWN

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