Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-10-08
Options put/call open interest 0.40, read 2026-11-03
Ethical passes the values gate
Price253.70 USD
Fair value198.18
Ethical score83.3/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-26Read Accumulation237.58+6.8% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 16% rise in 8 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup204.98+23.8% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Williams-Sonoma, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $253.70. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 367 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 367 days
Price at the screen
$253.70
Valuation
25.92 trailing · 24.05 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 83.3
Beta
1.47
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
26.92%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 26.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
21.19%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 21.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.47%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Williams-Sonoma, clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 27%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when WSM's ethical verdict changes
Today WSM passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades above our $198.18 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 6.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 28.0% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $198.18, with a range of $135.90 to $227.90, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Premium kitchen retailer priced for better days
Walk into any Williams-Sonoma store and the quality of the pots and linens stands out. Yet the share price of 228 dollars sits well above our fair value of 200 dollars, leaving a negative margin of safety. Revenue is growing just 4 percent while the forward multiple sits at 22 times, a rich tag for a moderate-moat retailer even with a 14 percent profit margin and 54 percent return on equity.
We pass because the numbers do not support the valuation. Nineteen analysts may carry a buy consensus and a 210-dollar median target, yet the gap between price and intrinsic value remains clear. The ethical screen is cleared, but that alone does not turn an expensive stock into an attractive one.
Retail spending on the home is cyclical and can slow quickly when housing or consumer confidence turns. A high return on equity is impressive, yet it offers little protection if growth stays modest and the multiple contracts. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
WSM trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Accumulation$253.70+1.4%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $207.
2026-10-28Accumulation$250.16+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 19% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $207.
2026-10-21Accumulation$250.16+3.5%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $207.
2026-10-14Accumulation$241.78+4.7%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $207.
2026-10-02Accumulation$231.03-2.8%Entry 13
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $207.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $207. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25Markup$237.58+0.0%Entry 11
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $207. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Markup$237.58+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $207. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23Markup$237.58+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $207. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-22Markup$237.58-4.3%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 4.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $207. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
