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The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Tractor Supply
TSCO · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $17.7B · 52,000 employees
Tractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
34.00 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Tractor Supply holds its Markdown at $34.00. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 24 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 24 days
Price at the screen
$34.00
Valuation
17.71 trailing · 16.57 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.47
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
54.35%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 54.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
2.02%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 2.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $30.62 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 2.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 9.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 27 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +3% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Rural retailer trips on its debt test
Picture a store stacked with feed, fencing and supplies for life outside the big cities. Tractor Supply looks like a simple rural bet until the numbers and the screen are checked.
We pass because the ethical screen fails on the debt ratio and that alone ends the case. Revenue grows at just 4 percent, margins sit at 7 percent and the narrow moat offers little shelter in a cyclical retail setting even with a 46 percent ROE.
The 13.8 times forward multiple and analyst targets near 40 dollars draw attention yet peak-cycle earnings and the ethical fail make the modest margin of safety irrelevant. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TSCO trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-15Markdown · changed$34.00-0.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $36.
2026-08-15Markup · changed$34.09+14.5%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 14.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $47.
2026-07-18Distribution$29.78+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $47.
2026-07-03Distribution$29.78+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$29.78Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
