Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-25
Options put/call open interest 0.61, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price35.10 USD
Fair value35.38
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readFairas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-21Read Markup33.16+5.9% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup first Markup read since October
2026-10-15Read Accumulation33.70+4.2% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 5% rise in 4 days
2026-10-11Read Markup32.07+9.4% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-10-02Read Distribution32.07+9.4% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 6% slide in 2 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Tractor Supply holds its Markup at $35.10. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 567 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 567 days
Price at the screen
$35.10
Valuation
18.25 trailing · 16.41 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.51
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
54.35%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 54.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
2.02%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 2.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Tractor Supply's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 54% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today TSCO does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 0% discount to our $35.38 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 5.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 0.8% discount to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 27 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +8% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $35.38, with a range of $27.90 to $40.94, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Rural retailer trips on its debt test
Picture a store stacked with feed, fencing and supplies for life outside the big cities. Tractor Supply looks like a simple rural bet until the numbers and the screen are checked.
We pass because the ethical screen fails on the debt ratio and that alone ends the case. Revenue grows at just 4 percent, margins sit at 7 percent and the narrow moat offers little shelter in a cyclical retail setting even with a 46 percent ROE.
The 13.8 times forward multiple and analyst targets near 40 dollars draw attention yet peak-cycle earnings and the ethical fail make the modest margin of safety irrelevant. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TSCO trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-29Markup$33.42+0.8%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $37.
2026-10-22Markup$33.16+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $36. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markup · changed$33.16+0.0%Entry 14
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $36. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Accumulation$33.16+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $36. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19Accumulation$33.16+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $36. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Accumulation$33.16+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $36. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17Accumulation$33.16+1.3%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $36. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Accumulation$32.74-2.8%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $36. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (27 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $36. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-11Markup · changed$32.07+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (27 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $35.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
