An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Casey's General Stores, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates convenience stores under the Casey's and Casey's General Store names in the United States.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $853.38
Casey's holds its Markup at $853.38.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-27
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 240 days
Price
$853.38
Valuation
44.61 trailing · 36.21 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.62
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $718.20 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 14.50% revenue growth.
Read at
$853.38
44.61 P/E · 36.21 fwd
Our fair value
$718.20
16% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$965.00
+13% to current
Target low $795.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $1,069.00
▲ current $853.38 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$853.38
you are here
Conservative
$715.50
-16%
Analyst avg
$965.00
+13%
Our fair value
$718.20
-16%
Analyst high
$1,069.00
+25%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
14.50%
Profit margin
4.07%
Debt to equity
73.51
Analyst consensus
Buy · 18 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
It depends which standard you follow. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor, and on this company they disagree. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why the two disagree. They fall out over one thing only: the company’s debt. Our stricter standard measures that debt against what the company owns, and it works out too high to pass. The common standard measures the same debt against what the company is worth on the stock market, where it works out low enough to pass. Every other check, the two agree on. So in practice, most halal apps would treat this as fine to hold, while our stricter view would not — and which line you follow is between you and your scholar.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 36.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Against market value it is 9.1%, under the 30% line the market-value standard uses — so that standard clears it.Divergent
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 6.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Convenience chain priced for perfection yet fails ethics
Drive past any Midwest highway and Casey's looks like the reliable stop for pizza, fuel and cigarettes that never goes away. Yet the shares sit at 859 dollars against our fair value of 718, a forward multiple of 36.5 times earnings and a weak moat that leaves little room for error.
Revenue is growing 14 percent, profit margins sit at 4 percent and return on equity reaches 19 percent, but the ethical screen flags the debt ratio as a clear fail. Eighteen analysts still lean buy with a 965 dollar median target, yet none of that overrides the valuation gap or the governance red flag.
High debt in a defensive retail name adds real fragility when interest rates stay elevated, and a weak moat means any new competitor or margin squeeze hits harder than the market appears to price. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
CASY trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 12.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 84%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $803. Entered 2026-07-24 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-24Markup$859.12+12.8%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 12.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 84%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $803.
2026-07-18Markup$761.91+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 84%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $803.
2026-07-03Markup$761.91+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$761.91Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
