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The Screen · Financials · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Travelers Companies (The)
TRV · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $79.7B · 34,000 employees
The Travelers Companies, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides a range of commercial and personal property, and casualty insurance products and services to businesses, government units, associations, and individuals i…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
374.62 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-18 · not a live quote Last reviewed 4 days ago
Screened 2026-09-18 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 374.62 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 315.69, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price374.62 USD
Fair value315.69
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-15Read Markdown365.66+2.5% to today
2026-08-15Read Markup382.45-2.0% to today
2026-07-02Read Accumulation303.25+23.5% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Travelers Companies (The) holds its Accumulation at $374.62. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$374.62
Valuation
10.07 trailing · 12.40 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.45
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $315.69 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 0.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 15.7% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 24 covering, consensus None. The average target sits −4% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Insurer priced for growth it cannot deliver
Picture a homeowner paying premiums every month for the promise of cover when disaster strikes. Travelers has built a solid book of that business across the United States, yet revenue has flatlined and the shares now trade at 369 dollars against a fair value nearer 301 dollars.
We pass for two clear reasons. The forward multiple of 12.7 times offers little margin when growth sits at zero, while the ethical screen flags the business on activity grounds. A 27 percent return on equity and 17 percent profit margin look respectable, but they do not offset the valuation gap or the ethical breach.
The stock may drift with the broader market and analyst targets hover around 340 dollars, yet paying a premium for no growth while failing a basic values check is not a combination we accept. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TRV trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-15Markdown · changed$365.66-4.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (24 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $360.
2026-08-15Markup · changed$382.45+26.1%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 26.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (23 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $313.
2026-07-18Accumulation$303.25+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (23 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $313.
2026-07-03Accumulation$303.25+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$303.25Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
