Earnings Preview · 05 November 2026
Where our screen stands going in
Fails the principled screen, Debt ratio. A strong business is not the same as a suitable one; for a values-conscious book this is a do-not-chase regardless of the print.
What the Street expects
Consensus looks for earnings of about $1.71 a share on revenue near $8.4B. Over the next twelve months analysts pencil in $4.92 of earnings per share against $4.15 over the last twelve, growth of about 19%. The median analyst target is $96 (range $74 to $112), 3% above the $94.10 share price, across 20 analysts.
How it has traded on past prints
Across the last 25 reports, the shares moved an average of -1.6% in the five sessions after the print and -1.1% over twenty. After a beat the average follow-through was -1.9%; after a miss, +1.8%. Misses have not been punished more than beats were rewarded, so the headline number alone has been a poor guide to the reaction here; guidance and the call matter more. There is no reliable drift pattern: the first move has often faded, so chasing the gap has not paid.
Levels that matter
At $94.10 the shares sit 6% below the 52-week high of $99.58 and 15% above the low of $81.69 (69% of the way up the range). The 50-day average is $87.72, below the price. The 200-day average is $90.49, below the price.
Valuation going in
The shares trade about 10% above our fair-value estimate: priced for things to go right. Our fair-value estimate is $85.15 against the current share price of $94.10. The shares trade at 22.4 times trailing earnings and 18.9 times forward earnings. Revenue is growing about 0% with net margins near 15%.
Our stance
We are not participants, the name fails our principled screen, so we watch it as a sentiment gauge, not a holding.
What the flow says going in
Underlying money flow reads as accumulation (21-day Chaikin Money Flow +0.19, five-day price change +1.2%, as of 2026-11-03, desk flow model).
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
