Earnings Preview · 29 October 2026
Where our screen stands going in
The two standards split: it clears the faith-based (AAOIFI) screen but not our broader anchor screen. We default to protection and do not call it compliant on a divergence.
What the Street expects
Consensus looks for earnings of about $6.61 a share on revenue near $22.6B. Over the next twelve months analysts pencil in $47.48 of earnings per share against $29.79 over the last twelve, growth of about 59%. The median analyst target is $1380 (range $930 to $1600), 3% above the $1344.00 share price, across 30 analysts.
How it has traded on past prints
Across the last 25 reports, the shares moved an average of +1.7% in the five sessions after the print and +5.3% over twenty. After a beat the average follow-through was +8.8%; after a miss, -6.8%. The post-earnings drift has been consistent: the first move has tended to keep going.
What options are pricing
Implied volatility near 90% prices a one-week move of roughly ±12.4% (about $1176.67 to $1511.33). Positioning: the heaviest put open interest sits at $660 and the heaviest call open interest at $1400; those strikes tend to act as magnets or walls in the days after.
Levels that matter
At $1344.00 the shares sit -4% below the 52-week high of $1292.65 and 71% above the low of $783.85 (110% of the way up the range). The 50-day average is $1186.60, below the price. The 200-day average is $1068.61, below the price.
Valuation going in
The shares trade about 11% above our fair-value estimate: priced for things to go right. Our fair-value estimate is $1212.48 against the current share price of $1344.00. The shares trade at 40.6 times trailing earnings and 25.5 times forward earnings. Revenue is growing about 48% with net margins near 34%.
Our stance
We are not participants, the name fails our principled screen, so we watch it as a sentiment gauge, not a holding.
What the flow says going in
Underlying money flow is neutral (21-day Chaikin Money Flow -0.06, five-day price change +1.3%, as of 2026-10-23, desk flow model): no strong accumulation or distribution signature.
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
